GCL Energy TechnologyLtd (SZSE:002015) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that GCL Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:002015) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for GCL Energy TechnologyLtd

What Is GCL Energy TechnologyLtd's Net Debt?

As you can see below, at the end of September 2024, GCL Energy TechnologyLtd had CN¥19.0b of debt, up from CN¥11.6b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had CN¥4.95b in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥14.1b.

How Healthy Is GCL Energy TechnologyLtd's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that GCL Energy TechnologyLtd had liabilities of CN¥12.5b due within 12 months and liabilities of CN¥14.9b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had CN¥4.95b in cash and CN¥5.50b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total CN¥16.9b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of CN¥11.9b, we think shareholders really should watch GCL Energy TechnologyLtd's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.7, it's fair to say GCL Energy TechnologyLtd does have a significant amount of debt. However, its interest coverage of 6.0 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. One way GCL Energy TechnologyLtd could vanquish its debt would be if it stops borrowing more but continues to grow EBIT at around 10%, as it did over the last year. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if GCL Energy TechnologyLtd can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, GCL Energy TechnologyLtd saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View

To be frank both GCL Energy TechnologyLtd's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. We're quite clear that we consider GCL Energy TechnologyLtd to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for GCL Energy TechnologyLtd (2 are a bit unpleasant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.