Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:601188) Has Been On A Rise But Financial Prospects Look Weak: Is The Stock Overpriced?

Heilongjiang Transport Development's (SHSE:601188) stock is up by a considerable 11% over the past month. However, in this article, we decided to focus on its weak fundamentals, as long-term financial performance of a business is what ultimately dictates market outcomes. In this article, we decided to focus on Heilongjiang Transport Development's ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Heilongjiang Transport Development

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Heilongjiang Transport Development is:

2.7% = CN¥131m ÷ CN¥4.8b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every CN¥1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of CN¥0.03.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Heilongjiang Transport Development's Earnings Growth And 2.7% ROE

As you can see, Heilongjiang Transport Development's ROE looks pretty weak. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 6.3%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 22% seen by Heilongjiang Transport Development was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For example, the business has allocated capital poorly, or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

So, as a next step, we compared Heilongjiang Transport Development's performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 3.9% over the last few years.

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Heilongjiang Transport Development is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Heilongjiang Transport Development Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Heilongjiang Transport Development has a high three-year median payout ratio of 60% (that is, it is retaining 40% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. The business is only left with a small pool of capital to reinvest - A vicious cycle that doesn't benefit the company in the long-run. Our risks dashboard should have the 2 risks we have identified for Heilongjiang Transport Development.

In addition, Heilongjiang Transport Development has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth.

Summary

In total, we would have a hard think before deciding on any investment action concerning Heilongjiang Transport Development. As a result of its low ROE and lack of much reinvestment into the business, the company has seen a disappointing earnings growth rate. Until now, we have only just grazed the surface of the company's past performance by looking at the company's fundamentals. So it may be worth checking this free detailed graph of Heilongjiang Transport Development's past earnings, as well as revenue and cash flows to get a deeper insight into the company's performance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com