Aerospace CH UAVLtd Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 002389 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

002389 (CN¥19.92) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥51.55)

Is 002389 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 002389 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 002389 (CN¥19.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥51.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 002389 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 002389?

Key metric: As 002389 is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 002389. This is calculated by dividing 002389's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 002389's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	8.1x
Sales	CN¥2.44b
Market Cap	CN¥19.26b

002389 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	7.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	48.3x
PEG Ratio	18.6x

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 002389's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 002389 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	3.4x
000636 Guangdong Fenghua Advanced Technology (Holding)	4x	18.2%	CN¥18.3b
000050 Tianma Microelectronics	0.7x	12.3%	CN¥23.0b
002436 Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit TechLtd	3.7x	17.5%	CN¥20.6b
300679 Electric Connector Technology	5.1x	26.1%	CN¥21.4b
002389 Aerospace CH UAVLtd	8.1x	29.1%	CN¥19.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 002389 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.1x) compared to the peer average (3.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 002389's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Electronic Industry?

15 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
000100 TCL Technology Group	0.5x	11.9%	US$12.26b
600745 Wingtech TechnologyLtd	0.8x	7.6%	US$7.40b
601231 Universal Scientific Industrial (Shanghai)	0.5x	11.1%	US$4.56b
000050 Tianma Microelectronics	0.7x	12.3%	US$3.18b

15 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 002389 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.1x) compared to the CN Electronic industry average (4.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 002389's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

002389 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	8.1x
Fair PS Ratio	3.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 002389 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 002389 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥19.92	CN¥15.10 -24.2%	7.3%	CN¥16.20	CN¥14.00	n/a	2
Nov ’25	CN¥19.10	CN¥15.10 -20.9%	7.3%	CN¥16.20	CN¥14.00	n/a	2
Oct ’25	CN¥17.08	CN¥15.10 -11.6%	7.3%	CN¥16.20	CN¥14.00	n/a	2
Mar ’25	CN¥15.43	CN¥27.12 +75.7%	3.3%	CN¥28.00	CN¥26.23	n/a	2
Feb ’25	CN¥13.40	CN¥27.12 +102.4%	3.3%	CN¥28.00	CN¥26.23	n/a	2
Jan ’25	CN¥18.60	CN¥27.12 +45.8%	3.3%	CN¥28.00	CN¥26.23	n/a	2
Dec ’24	CN¥19.28	CN¥27.12 +40.6%	3.3%	CN¥28.00	CN¥26.23	n/a	2
Nov ’24	CN¥19.80	CN¥27.12 +36.9%	3.3%	CN¥28.00	CN¥26.23	CN¥19.10	2
Oct ’24	CN¥19.68	CN¥27.57 +40.1%	1.6%	CN¥28.00	CN¥27.14	CN¥17.08	2
Sep ’24	CN¥20.59	CN¥27.57 +33.9%	1.6%	CN¥28.00	CN¥27.14	CN¥13.59	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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