Solid Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Ningbo Yunsheng (SHSE:600366)

Following the solid earnings report from Ningbo Yunsheng Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600366), the market responded by bidding up the stock price. While the profit numbers were good, our analysis has found some concerning factors that shareholders should be aware of.

Check out our latest analysis for Ningbo Yunsheng

Zooming In On Ningbo Yunsheng's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Over the twelve months to September 2024, Ningbo Yunsheng recorded an accrual ratio of -0.14. That indicates that its free cash flow quite significantly exceeded its statutory profit. To wit, it produced free cash flow of CN¥907m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of CN¥88.6m. Ningbo Yunsheng's free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see. However, that's not all there is to consider. We can see that unusual items have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore the accrual ratio.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Surprisingly, given Ningbo Yunsheng's accrual ratio implied strong cash conversion, its paper profit was actually boosted by CN¥51m in unusual items. While it's always nice to have higher profit, a large contribution from unusual items sometimes dampens our enthusiasm. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. We can see that Ningbo Yunsheng's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to September 2024. As a result, we can surmise that the unusual items are making its statutory profit significantly stronger than it would otherwise be.

Our Take On Ningbo Yunsheng's Profit Performance

Ningbo Yunsheng's profits got a boost from unusual items, which indicates they might not be sustained and yet its accrual ratio still indicated solid cash conversion, which is promising. Based on these factors, we think it's very unlikely that Ningbo Yunsheng's statutory profits make it seem much weaker than it is. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. You'd be interested to know, that we found 2 warning signs for Ningbo Yunsheng and you'll want to know about them.

Our examination of Ningbo Yunsheng has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.