Merit Interactive Co.,Ltd.'s (SZSE:300766) Shares Climb 47% But Its Business Is Yet to Catch Up

Merit Interactive Co.,Ltd. (SZSE:300766) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 47% gain in the last month alone. Unfortunately, despite the strong performance over the last month, the full year gain of 4.7% isn't as attractive.

After such a large jump in price, Merit InteractiveLtd may be sending strong sell signals at present with a price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 13.3x, when you consider almost half of the companies in the IT industry in China have P/S ratios under 4.5x and even P/S lower than 2x aren't out of the ordinary. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/S.

Check out our latest analysis for Merit InteractiveLtd

What Does Merit InteractiveLtd's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For example, consider that Merit InteractiveLtd's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Merit InteractiveLtd's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

How Is Merit InteractiveLtd's Revenue Growth Trending?

Merit InteractiveLtd's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 4.4%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 19% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 21% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that Merit InteractiveLtd's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

What Does Merit InteractiveLtd's P/S Mean For Investors?

Merit InteractiveLtd's P/S has grown nicely over the last month thanks to a handy boost in the share price. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

We've established that Merit InteractiveLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Merit InteractiveLtd, and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Merit InteractiveLtd, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.