Beijing SuperMap Software Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 31%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

There's been a notable change in appetite for Beijing SuperMap Software Co., Ltd. (SZSE:300036) shares in the week since its annual report, with the stock down 12% to CN¥15.10. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of CN¥2.0b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 31% to hit CN¥0.31 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Beijing SuperMap Software

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Beijing SuperMap Software's four analysts is for revenues of CN¥2.43b in 2024. This would reflect a major 23% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 92% to CN¥0.59. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥2.47b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.71 in 2024. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 7.4% to CN¥25.16, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Beijing SuperMap Software, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥28.31 and the most bearish at CN¥22.00 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Beijing SuperMap Software's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Beijing SuperMap Software's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 23% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.1% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 21% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Beijing SuperMap Software is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Beijing SuperMap Software. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Beijing SuperMap Software going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Beijing SuperMap Software Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.