Is It Time To Consider Buying China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888)?

Let's talk about the popular China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited (SHSE:601888). The company's shares led the SHSE gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. While good news for shareholders, the company has traded much higher in the past year. With many analysts covering the large-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Today we will analyse the most recent data on China Tourism Group Duty Free’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

See our latest analysis for China Tourism Group Duty Free

Is China Tourism Group Duty Free Still Cheap?

The stock seems fairly valued at the moment according to our valuation model. It’s trading around 0.10% above our intrinsic value, which means if you buy China Tourism Group Duty Free today, you’d be paying a relatively fair price for it. And if you believe the company’s true value is CN¥67.95, then there isn’t really any room for the share price grow beyond what it’s currently trading. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because China Tourism Group Duty Free’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.

What does the future of China Tourism Group Duty Free look like?

Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. China Tourism Group Duty Free's earnings over the next few years are expected to increase by 31%, indicating a highly optimistic future ahead. This should lead to more robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in 601888’s positive outlook, with shares trading around its fair value. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at the stock? Will you have enough conviction to buy should the price fluctuates below the true value?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on 601888, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around its fair value. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for the company, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So if you'd like to dive deeper into this stock, it's crucial to consider any risks it's facing. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with China Tourism Group Duty Free, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

If you are no longer interested in China Tourism Group Duty Free, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.