What Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd's (SZSE:300267) 28% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You

Those holding Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd (SZSE:300267) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 28% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 19% in the last twelve months.

After such a large jump in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 3.7x, considering almost half the companies in China's Pharmaceuticals industry have P/S ratios below 3x. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

View our latest analysis for Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical

What Does Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For example, consider that Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should outperform the industry for P/S ratios like Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 24%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 35% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 17% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical shares have taken a big step in a northerly direction, but its P/S is elevated as a result. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our examination of Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Hunan Er-Kang Pharmaceutical you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.