Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000538) Just Reported Full-Year Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

It's been a good week for Yunnan Baiyao Group Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000538) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 2.5% to CN¥56.81. Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd reported CN¥40b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.66 beat expectations, being 2.8% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥42.2b in 2025. This would be a modest 5.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 11% to CN¥2.96. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥43.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.86 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd

The consensus price target was unchanged at CN¥67.45, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CN¥76.82 and the most bearish at CN¥54.20 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd'shistorical trends, as the 5.4% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 5.3% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 10% per year. So although Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥67.45, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Yunnan Baiyao GroupLtd that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.