Hubei Heyuan Gas Co.,Ltd.'s (SZSE:002971) Share Price Not Quite Adding Up

Hubei Heyuan Gas Co.,Ltd.'s (SZSE:002971) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 44.7x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in China, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 28x and even P/E's below 17x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

The recent earnings growth at Hubei Heyuan GasLtd would have to be considered satisfactory if not spectacular. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this good earnings growth will be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Hubei Heyuan GasLtd

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Hubei Heyuan GasLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Hubei Heyuan GasLtd's to be considered reasonable.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 3.7%. Still, lamentably EPS has fallen 35% in aggregate from three years ago, which is disappointing. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 36% shows it's an unpleasant look.

With this information, we find it concerning that Hubei Heyuan GasLtd is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Hubei Heyuan GasLtd's P/E

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Hubei Heyuan GasLtd currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Hubei Heyuan GasLtd you should know about.

You might be able to find a better investment than Hubei Heyuan GasLtd. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com