Optimistic Investors Push Anhui Guofeng New Materials Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000859) Shares Up 33% But Growth Is Lacking

The Anhui Guofeng New Materials Co., Ltd. (SZSE:000859) share price has done very well over the last month, posting an excellent gain of 33%. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 19% over that time.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Anhui Guofeng New Materials' P/S ratio of 1.7x, since the median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio for the Packaging industry in China is also close to 1.5x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

View our latest analysis for Anhui Guofeng New Materials

What Does Anhui Guofeng New Materials' Recent Performance Look Like?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Anhui Guofeng New Materials over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to put the disappointing revenue performance behind them over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from falling. If you like the company, you'd at least be hoping this is the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Anhui Guofeng New Materials, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Anhui Guofeng New Materials' to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 5.2%. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 22% overall rise in revenue. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 21% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

In light of this, it's curious that Anhui Guofeng New Materials' P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

What Does Anhui Guofeng New Materials' P/S Mean For Investors?

Anhui Guofeng New Materials' stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Anhui Guofeng New Materials' average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Anhui Guofeng New Materials that you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Anhui Guofeng New Materials, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.