Anhui Golden Seed Winery Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 600199 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

600199 (CN¥14.15) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥15.7)

Is 600199 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 600199 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 600199 (CN¥14.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥15.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 600199 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 600199?

Key metric: As 600199 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 600199. This is calculated by dividing 600199's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 600199's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	7.7x
Sales	CN¥1.20b
Market Cap	CN¥9.31b

600199 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	7.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-280.2x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 600199's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 600199 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	3.9x
600197 Xinjiang Yilite IndustryLtd	3.7x	15.7%	CN¥8.3b
600059 Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing WineLtd	4.3x	6.9%	CN¥8.2b
603919 JINHUI LIQUOR	3.6x	16.0%	CN¥10.3b
000869 Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine	4.1x	14.0%	CN¥12.3b
600199 Anhui Golden Seed Winery	7.7x	23.8%	CN¥9.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 600199 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.7x) compared to the peer average (3.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 600199's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Beverage Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies available in this PS range

0 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 600199 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.7x) compared to the CN Beverage industry average (4.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 600199's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

600199 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	7.7x
Fair PS Ratio	3.6x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 600199 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 600199 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥14.15	CN¥17.77 +25.6%	6.9%	CN¥19.00	CN¥16.54	n/a	2
Nov ’25	CN¥12.86	CN¥17.77 +38.2%	6.9%	CN¥19.00	CN¥16.54	n/a	2
Oct ’25	CN¥14.62	CN¥17.77 +21.5%	6.9%	CN¥19.00	CN¥16.54	n/a	2
Sep ’25	CN¥10.69	CN¥17.77 +66.2%	6.9%	CN¥19.00	CN¥16.54	n/a	2
Aug ’25	CN¥12.19	CN¥17.77 +45.8%	6.9%	CN¥19.00	CN¥16.54	n/a	2
Jul ’25	CN¥11.97	CN¥17.77 +48.5%	6.9%	CN¥19.00	CN¥16.54	n/a	2
Jun ’25	CN¥14.49	CN¥17.77 +22.6%	6.9%	CN¥19.00	CN¥16.54	n/a	2
May ’25	CN¥15.36	CN¥17.04 +10.9%	11.5%	CN¥19.00	CN¥15.08	n/a	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

TECON BIOLOGYLTD

CN¥9.1b

Engages in the provision of animal health care, feed, pig breeding, agricultural product processing and trade, and financial services in China and internationally.

2100

CN¥6.67

-1.9%

-14.7%

Tsingtao Brewery

HK$85.1b

Engages in the production, distribution, wholesale, and retail sale of beer products in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, and internationally.

600600

HK$70.28

-2.4%

-5.7%

Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Ltd

CN¥55.7b

Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.,Ltd.

603369

CN¥44.71

-3.6%

-16.9%