New Hope Dairy Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 002946 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

002946 (CN¥13.55) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥10.39)

Is 002946 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 002946 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow

Simply Wall St

CN¥10.39

Fair Value

30.4% overvalued

Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 002946 (CN¥13.55) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥10.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 002946 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 002946?

Key metric: As 002946 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 002946. This is calculated by dividing 002946's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 002946's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	22.3x
Earnings	CN¥523.66m
Market Cap	CN¥11.66b

002946 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.9x
PEG Ratio	1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 002946's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 002946 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	29.8x
600186 Lotus Health Group	57.6x	n/a	CN¥11.6b
002557 Chacha Food Company	14.7x	13.7%	CN¥13.6b
002891 Yantai China Pet Foods	32x	16.0%	CN¥10.8b
002053 Yunnan Energy Investment	15x	18.7%	CN¥10.8b
002946 New Hope Dairy	22.3x	18.4%	CN¥11.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 002946 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x) compared to the peer average (22.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 002946's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Food Industry?

3 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
002157 Jiangxi Zhengbang TechnologyLtd	2.2x	n/a	US$3.56b
600872 Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial and Commercial HoldingLtd	4.6x	-46.4%	US$2.22b
002086 Shandong Oriental Ocean Sci-Tech	2.9x	n/a	US$677.30m

No more companies available in this PE range

3 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 002946 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x) compared to the CN Food industry average (29.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 002946's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

002946 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	22.3x
Fair PE Ratio	24.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 002946 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 002946 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥13.55	CN¥14.50 +7.0%	3.4%	CN¥15.00	CN¥14.00	n/a	2
Feb ’26	CN¥14.47	CN¥14.50 +0.2%	3.4%	CN¥15.00	CN¥14.00	n/a	2
Jan ’26	CN¥14.51	CN¥14.50 -0.07%	3.4%	CN¥15.00	CN¥14.00	n/a	2
Dec ’25	CN¥13.01	CN¥14.29 +9.8%	3.6%	CN¥15.00	CN¥13.86	n/a	3
Nov ’25	CN¥12.41	CN¥14.29 +15.1%	3.6%	CN¥15.00	CN¥13.86	n/a	3
Oct ’25	CN¥12.34	CN¥12.79 +3.6%	6.1%	CN¥13.86	CN¥12.00	n/a	3
Sep ’25	CN¥8.99	CN¥12.79 +42.2%	6.1%	CN¥13.86	CN¥12.00	n/a	3
Aug ’25	CN¥8.48	CN¥13.29 +56.7%	6.9%	CN¥14.00	CN¥12.00	n/a	3
Jul ’25	CN¥8.81	CN¥13.29 +50.8%	6.9%	CN¥14.00	CN¥12.00	n/a	3
Jun ’25	CN¥10.33	CN¥13.00 +25.8%	7.7%	CN¥14.00	CN¥12.00	n/a	2
May ’25	CN¥9.97	CN¥13.00 +30.4%	7.7%	CN¥14.00	CN¥12.00	n/a	2
Apr ’25	CN¥10.61	CN¥17.00 +60.3%	1.4%	CN¥17.30	CN¥16.71	n/a	3
Mar ’25	CN¥10.25	CN¥17.00 +65.9%	1.4%	CN¥17.30	CN¥16.71	n/a	3
Feb ’25	CN¥9.55	CN¥17.00 +78.0%	1.4%	CN¥17.30	CN¥16.71	CN¥14.47	3
Jan ’25	CN¥11.48	CN¥17.00 +48.1%	1.4%	CN¥17.30	CN¥16.71	CN¥14.51	3
Dec ’24	CN¥12.42	CN¥17.00 +36.9%	1.4%	CN¥17.30	CN¥16.71	CN¥13.01	3
Nov ’24	CN¥13.05	CN¥17.67 +35.4%	5.5%	CN¥19.00	CN¥16.71	CN¥12.41	3
Oct ’24	CN¥14.38	CN¥17.67 +22.9%	5.5%	CN¥19.00	CN¥16.71	CN¥12.34	3
Sep ’24	CN¥15.23	CN¥18.59 +22.0%	5.9%	CN¥20.00	CN¥17.30	CN¥8.99	3
Aug ’24	CN¥15.83	CN¥18.59 +17.4%	5.9%	CN¥20.00	CN¥17.30	CN¥8.48	3
Jul ’24	CN¥14.35	CN¥18.59 +29.5%	5.9%	CN¥20.00	CN¥17.30	CN¥8.81	3
Jun ’24	CN¥16.55	CN¥18.59 +12.3%	5.9%	CN¥20.00	CN¥17.30	CN¥10.33	3

Analyst Price Target

Consensus Narrative from 2 Analysts

CN¥14.50

Fair Value

6.6% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2025/02/08 00:06
End of Day Share Price	2025/02/07 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd. is covered by 7 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Guangyi Liu	China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.
Wendan Wang	China International Capital Corporation Limited
Yuan Xue	Citic Securities Co., Ltd.