Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 200869 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

200869 (HK$8.3) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$3.04)

Is 200869 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 200869 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 200869 (HK$8.3) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$3.04)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 200869 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 200869?

Key metric: As 200869 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 200869. This is calculated by dividing 200869's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 200869's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	47x
Earnings	CN¥331.88m
Market Cap	CN¥12.19b

200869 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	15.5x
PEG Ratio	1.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 200869's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 200869 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	27x
000860 Beijing Shunxin AgricultureLtd	37x	29.0%	CN¥13.8b
600197 Xinjiang Yilite IndustryLtd	23.8x	16.8%	CN¥8.3b
603919 JINHUI LIQUOR	26.7x	18.3%	CN¥10.2b
600059 Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing WineLtd	20.7x	-37.2%	CN¥8.1b
200869 Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine	47x	25.7%	HK$12.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 200869 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47x) compared to the peer average (27x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 200869's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Beverage Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies available in this PE range

0 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 200869 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47x) compared to the CN Beverage industry average (23.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 200869's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

200869 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	47x
Fair PE Ratio	27x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 200869 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (47x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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