Stock Analysis

Further weakness as Henan Huaying Agricultural Development (SZSE:002321) drops 10% this week, taking five-year losses to 79%

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SZSE:002321

We're definitely into long term investing, but some companies are simply bad investments over any time frame. We really hate to see fellow investors lose their hard-earned money. For example, we sympathize with anyone who was caught holding Henan Huaying Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002321) during the five years that saw its share price drop a whopping 79%. And we doubt long term believers are the only worried holders, since the stock price has declined 45% over the last twelve months. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 13% in the last three months. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 6.0% in the same timeframe.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Henan Huaying Agricultural Development isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Henan Huaying Agricultural Development

Because Henan Huaying Agricultural Development made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over half a decade Henan Huaying Agricultural Development reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 11% for each year. That's definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. So it's not altogether surprising to see the share price down 12% per year in the same time period. This kind of price performance makes us very wary, especially when combined with falling revenue. Of course, the poor performance could mean the market has been too severe selling down. That can happen.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

SZSE:002321 Earnings and Revenue Growth July 19th 2024

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 17% in the twelve months, Henan Huaying Agricultural Development shareholders did even worse, losing 45%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 12% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Henan Huaying Agricultural Development that you should be aware of before investing here.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: many of them are unnoticed AND have attractive valuation).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Henan Huaying Agricultural Development might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.