New JCM Group Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300157) Stock Rockets 40% As Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

New JCM Group Co.,Ltd (SZSE:300157) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 40% gain in the last month alone. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 16% in the last twelve months.

Since its price has surged higher, given close to half the companies operating in China's Energy Services industry have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 2.1x, you may consider New JCM GroupLtd as a stock to potentially avoid with its 3.6x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

See our latest analysis for New JCM GroupLtd

How New JCM GroupLtd Has Been Performing

For example, consider that New JCM GroupLtd's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for New JCM GroupLtd, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Enough Revenue Growth Forecasted For New JCM GroupLtd?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, New JCM GroupLtd would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 13%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 4.4% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 21% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we find it worrying that New JCM GroupLtd's P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Final Word

The large bounce in New JCM GroupLtd's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our examination of New JCM GroupLtd revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for New JCM GroupLtd you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.