Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For China Reform Culture Holdings Co., Ltd.'s (SHSE:600636) Shares

When close to half the companies in the Consumer Services industry in China have price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") below 3.1x, you may consider China Reform Culture Holdings Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600636) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 9.2x P/S ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/S at face value as there may be an explanation why it's so lofty.

View our latest analysis for China Reform Culture Holdings

How Has China Reform Culture Holdings Performed Recently?

For example, consider that China Reform Culture Holdings' financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. Perhaps the market believes the company can do enough to outperform the rest of the industry in the near future, which is keeping the P/S ratio high. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on China Reform Culture Holdings' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

China Reform Culture Holdings' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 28%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 47% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 32% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

In light of this, it's alarming that China Reform Culture Holdings' P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

Our examination of China Reform Culture Holdings revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. Right now we aren't comfortable with the high P/S as this revenue performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, it will place shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for China Reform Culture Holdings that you should be aware of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.