Lancy Co., Ltd.

SZSE:002612 Stock Report

Market Cap: CN¥7.7b

Lancy Valuation

Is 002612 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 002612 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 002612 (CN¥17.48) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥33.33)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 002612 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 002612?

Key metric: As 002612 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 002612. This is calculated by dividing 002612's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 002612's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio36.1x
EarningsCN¥214.37m
Market CapCN¥7.73b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 002612's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 002612 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.9x
002154 Baoxiniao Holding
13.4x15.9%CN¥7.5b
300577 Anhui Korrun
18.6x13.1%CN¥5.9b
002832 BIEM.L.FDLKK GarmentLtd
13.1x15.4%CN¥12.0b
300840 Qingdao KutesmartLtd
30.4xn/aCN¥5.3b
002612 Lancy
36.1x24.3%CN¥7.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 002612 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.1x) compared to the peer average (18.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 002612's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Luxury Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
002612 36.1xIndustry Avg. 23.6xNo. of Companies17PE020406080100+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 002612 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.1x) compared to the CN Luxury industry average (23.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 002612's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

002612 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio36.1x
Fair PE Ratio21.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 002612 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 002612 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCN¥17.48
CN¥17.50
+0.1%
14.3%CN¥20.00CN¥15.00n/a2
Dec ’25CN¥17.50
CN¥17.50
0%
14.3%CN¥20.00CN¥15.00n/a2
Nov ’25CN¥16.83
CN¥17.50
+4.0%
14.3%CN¥20.00CN¥15.00n/a2
Oct ’25CN¥16.76
CN¥17.50
+4.4%
14.3%CN¥20.00CN¥15.00n/a2
Sep ’25CN¥13.18
CN¥21.90
+66.2%
8.7%CN¥23.80CN¥20.00n/a2
Dec ’24CN¥20.03
CN¥32.50
+62.3%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00CN¥17.502
Nov ’24CN¥21.24
CN¥32.50
+53.0%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00CN¥16.832
Oct ’24CN¥22.84
CN¥32.50
+42.3%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00CN¥16.762
Sep ’24CN¥23.31
CN¥32.50
+39.4%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00CN¥13.182
Aug ’24CN¥23.88
CN¥32.50
+36.1%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00CN¥13.562
Jul ’24CN¥23.78
CN¥32.50
+36.7%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00CN¥13.972
Jun ’24CN¥23.35
CN¥32.50
+39.2%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00CN¥16.162
May ’24CN¥27.31
CN¥30.50
+11.7%
1.6%CN¥31.00CN¥30.00CN¥17.452
Apr ’24CN¥24.50
CN¥28.55
+16.5%
5.1%CN¥30.00CN¥27.10CN¥17.302
Mar ’24CN¥29.33
CN¥28.55
-2.7%
5.1%CN¥30.00CN¥27.10CN¥17.952
Feb ’24CN¥28.97
CN¥28.55
-1.4%
5.1%CN¥30.00CN¥27.10CN¥16.602

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/24 01:41
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Lancy Co., Ltd. is covered by 16 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yu LeiChangjiang Securities Co. LTD.
Zhuonan XuChina International Capital Corporation Limited
Yu SunChina Merchants Securities Co. Ltd.