Lancy Valuation

Is 002612 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 002612 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 002612 (CN¥14.97) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥23.91)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 002612 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 002612?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

002612 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA21.1x
PEG Ratio1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 002612's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 002612 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.3x
300577 Anhui Korrun
19x15.8%CN¥5.5b
002154 Baoxiniao Holding
9.4x15.7%CN¥6.0b
002345 Guangdong Chj IndustryLtd
12.7x14.8%CN¥4.5b
002832 BIEM.L.FDLKK GarmentLtd
12.2x19.7%CN¥11.9b
002612 Lancy
29.2x23.5%CN¥6.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 002612 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.2x) compared to the peer average (13.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 002612's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Luxury Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a18.8%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a18.8%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 002612 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.2x) compared to the CN Luxury industry average (20.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 002612's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

002612 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio29.2x
Fair PE Ratio21.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 002612 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 002612 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCN¥14.97
CN¥17.50
+16.9%
14.3%CN¥20.00CN¥15.00n/a2
Oct ’25CN¥16.76
CN¥17.50
+4.4%
14.3%CN¥20.00CN¥15.00n/a2
Sep ’25CN¥13.18
CN¥21.90
+66.2%
8.7%CN¥23.80CN¥20.00n/a2
Dec ’24CN¥20.03
CN¥32.50
+62.3%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00n/a2
Nov ’24CN¥21.24
CN¥32.50
+53.0%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00n/a2
Oct ’24CN¥22.84
CN¥32.50
+42.3%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00CN¥16.762
Sep ’24CN¥23.31
CN¥32.50
+39.4%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00CN¥13.182
Aug ’24CN¥23.88
CN¥32.50
+36.1%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00CN¥13.562
Jul ’24CN¥23.78
CN¥32.50
+36.7%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00CN¥13.972
Jun ’24CN¥23.35
CN¥32.50
+39.2%
1.5%CN¥33.00CN¥32.00CN¥16.162
May ’24CN¥27.31
CN¥30.50
+11.7%
1.6%CN¥31.00CN¥30.00CN¥17.452
Apr ’24CN¥24.50
CN¥28.55
+16.5%
5.1%CN¥30.00CN¥27.10CN¥17.302
Mar ’24CN¥29.33
CN¥28.55
-2.7%
5.1%CN¥30.00CN¥27.10CN¥17.952
Feb ’24CN¥28.97
CN¥28.55
-1.4%
5.1%CN¥30.00CN¥27.10CN¥16.602

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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