Benign Growth For Xinlun New Materials Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002341) Underpins Stock's 57% Plummet

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Xinlun New Materials Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002341) shares are down a considerable 57% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. For any long-term shareholders, the last month ends a year to forget by locking in a 77% share price decline.

Since its price has dipped substantially, Xinlun New Materials may be sending bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.5x, since almost half of all companies in the Commercial Services industry in China have P/S ratios greater than 2.5x and even P/S higher than 5x are not unusual. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

See our latest analysis for Xinlun New Materials

What Does Xinlun New Materials' Recent Performance Look Like?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Xinlun New Materials over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/S is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Xinlun New Materials will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?

Xinlun New Materials' P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 27%. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 74% overall. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 30% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this in mind, we understand why Xinlun New Materials' P/S is lower than most of its industry peers. However, we think shrinking revenues are unlikely to lead to a stable P/S over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/S to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its top-line growth.

The Key Takeaway

The southerly movements of Xinlun New Materials' shares means its P/S is now sitting at a pretty low level. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

It's no surprise that Xinlun New Materials maintains its low P/S off the back of its sliding revenue over the medium-term. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in revenue isn't great enough to justify a higher P/S ratio. Given the current circumstances, it seems unlikely that the share price will experience any significant movement in either direction in the near future if recent medium-term revenue trends persist.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Xinlun New Materials (at least 1 which is concerning), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com