China Railway Group Limited

XSSC:601390 Stock Report

Market Cap: CN¥145.4b

China Railway Group Valuation

Is 601390 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 601390 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 601390 (CN¥6.38) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥3.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 601390 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 601390?

Key metric: As 601390 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 601390. This is calculated by dividing 601390's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 601390's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5.6x
EarningsCN¥28.34b
Market CapCN¥145.35b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 601390's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 601390 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.3x
601186 China Railway Construction
6.3x8.1%CN¥115.2b
601669 Power Construction Corporation of China
7.7x14.0%CN¥95.3b
601668 China State Construction Engineering
4.9x6.8%CN¥246.3b
600039 Sichuan Road & Bridge GroupLtd
10.5x17.6%CN¥63.1b
601390 China Railway Group
5.6x11.9%CN¥145.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 601390 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the peer average (7.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 601390's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Construction Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
601668 China State Construction Engineering
4.9x6.8%US$34.04b
600248 Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group
4.2x12.6%US$2.28b
000498 Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Group
4.1x8.0%US$1.32b
002482 Shenzhen Grandland Group
2.5xn/aUS$958.95m
601390 5.6xIndustry Avg. 23.7xNo. of Companies16PE020406080100+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 601390 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the CN Construction industry average (23.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 601390's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

601390 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.6x
Fair PE Ratio24.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 601390 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 601390 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCN¥6.38
CN¥8.78
+37.6%
15.1%CN¥11.00CN¥7.00n/a6
Nov ’25CN¥6.54
CN¥8.69
+32.9%
17.5%CN¥11.00CN¥7.20n/a5
Oct ’25CN¥6.57
CN¥8.37
+27.4%
15.4%CN¥11.00CN¥7.20n/a7
Sep ’25CN¥5.76
CN¥9.02
+56.5%
12.0%CN¥11.00CN¥7.30n/a9
Aug ’25CN¥6.28
CN¥9.16
+45.9%
12.6%CN¥11.00CN¥7.30n/a9
Jul ’25CN¥6.57
CN¥9.18
+39.7%
12.4%CN¥11.00CN¥7.30n/a9
Jun ’25CN¥6.58
CN¥9.16
+39.3%
12.7%CN¥11.00CN¥7.20n/a9
May ’25CN¥6.57
CN¥9.36
+42.5%
13.3%CN¥11.00CN¥7.20n/a9
Apr ’25CN¥7.19
CN¥9.14
+27.1%
13.9%CN¥11.00CN¥7.20n/a9
Mar ’25CN¥6.34
CN¥8.78
+38.4%
21.1%CN¥11.80CN¥5.50n/a9
Feb ’25CN¥6.15
CN¥8.94
+45.4%
23.2%CN¥12.20CN¥5.50n/a9
Jan ’25CN¥5.68
CN¥9.00
+58.4%
22.8%CN¥12.20CN¥5.50n/a9
Dec ’24CN¥5.73
CN¥9.00
+57.0%
22.8%CN¥12.20CN¥5.50n/a9
Nov ’24CN¥5.94
CN¥9.14
+53.9%
21.7%CN¥12.20CN¥5.50CN¥6.549
Oct ’24CN¥6.82
CN¥9.45
+38.5%
20.3%CN¥12.20CN¥5.50CN¥6.579
Sep ’24CN¥6.84
CN¥9.78
+43.0%
24.1%CN¥15.10CN¥5.50CN¥5.7610
Aug ’24CN¥8.13
CN¥10.31
+26.8%
23.8%CN¥15.10CN¥5.50CN¥6.2811
Jul ’24CN¥7.58
CN¥10.28
+35.6%
24.1%CN¥15.10CN¥5.50CN¥6.5711
Jun ’24CN¥8.07
CN¥10.28
+27.3%
24.1%CN¥15.10CN¥5.50CN¥6.5811
May ’24CN¥9.29
CN¥9.14
-1.6%
21.3%CN¥13.02CN¥5.50CN¥6.5711
Apr ’24CN¥6.88
CN¥8.32
+20.9%
18.9%CN¥11.43CN¥5.50CN¥7.1911
Mar ’24CN¥6.18
CN¥7.69
+24.5%
13.0%CN¥9.00CN¥5.50CN¥6.3410
Feb ’24CN¥5.80
CN¥7.70
+32.8%
12.7%CN¥9.00CN¥5.60CN¥6.1510
Jan ’24CN¥5.56
CN¥7.86
+41.3%
12.5%CN¥9.00CN¥5.60CN¥5.6810
Dec ’23CN¥5.80
CN¥7.86
+35.4%
12.5%CN¥9.00CN¥5.60CN¥5.7310
Nov ’23CN¥5.06
CN¥7.86
+55.2%
12.5%CN¥9.00CN¥5.60CN¥5.9410

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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