COFCO Technology & Industry Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 301058 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

301058 (CN¥11.92) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥13.64)

Is 301058 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 301058 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 301058 (CN¥11.92) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥13.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 301058 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 301058?

Key metric: As 301058 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 301058. This is calculated by dividing 301058's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 301058's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	26.9x
Earnings	CN¥226.73m
Market Cap	CN¥6.11b

301058 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18.4x
PEG Ratio	1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 301058's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 301058 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	36.3x
600496 Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building (Group)	12.5x	7.1%	CN¥6.1b
601886 Jangho Group	9.1x	20.6%	CN¥6.4b
603098 Center International GroupLtd	109.6x	n/a	CN¥5.6b
003013 Guangzhou Metro Design & Research Institute	14x	13.7%	CN¥6.2b
301058 COFCO Technology & Industry	26.9x	18.1%	CN¥6.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 301058 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the peer average (36.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 301058's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Construction Industry?

4 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
600248 Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group	4.5x	12.6%	US$2.44b
000498 Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Group	4.3x	9.1%	US$1.40b
002482 Shenzhen Grandland Group	2.6x	n/a	US$1.01b
002564 SuZhou THVOW Technology	1.6x	n/a	US$473.94m

No more companies available in this PE range

4 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 301058 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the CN Construction industry average (23.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 301058's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

301058 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	26.9x
Fair PE Ratio	20.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 301058 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 301058 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥11.92	CN¥14.61 +22.5%	7.0%	CN¥15.63	CN¥13.58	n/a	2
Nov ’25	CN¥12.12	CN¥14.61 +20.5%	7.0%	CN¥15.63	CN¥13.58	n/a	2
Jul ’24	CN¥13.95	CN¥17.72 +27.0%	13.9%	CN¥20.17	CN¥15.26	CN¥9.60	2
Jun ’24	CN¥14.05	CN¥17.72 +26.1%	13.9%	CN¥20.17	CN¥15.26	CN¥10.24	2
May ’24	CN¥14.62	CN¥18.14 +24.1%	11.5%	CN¥20.17	CN¥15.26	CN¥10.40	3
Apr ’24	CN¥15.43	CN¥20.20 +30.9%	4.9%	CN¥21.44	CN¥19.00	CN¥9.44	3
Mar ’24	CN¥15.36	CN¥20.20 +31.5%	4.9%	CN¥21.44	CN¥19.00	CN¥10.29	3
Feb ’24	CN¥15.38	CN¥20.20 +31.4%	4.9%	CN¥21.44	CN¥19.00	CN¥10.58	3
Jan ’24	CN¥14.95	CN¥20.20 +35.1%	4.9%	CN¥21.44	CN¥19.00	CN¥10.93	3
Dec ’23	CN¥17.63	CN¥20.22 +14.7%	6.0%	CN¥21.44	CN¥19.00	CN¥11.81	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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