CIMC Vehicles (Group) Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 301039 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

301039 (CN¥8.29) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥8.4)

Is 301039 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 301039 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 301039 (CN¥8.29) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CN¥8.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 301039 is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 301039?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 301039. This is calculated by dividing 301039's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 301039's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CN¥14.97b

301039 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5x
PEG Ratio	-2.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 301039's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 301039 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	14.4x
600967 Inner Mongolia First Machinery GroupLtd	17.1x	14.4%	CN¥11.9b
000528 Guangxi Liugong Machinery	18x	32.1%	CN¥18.8b
600761 Anhui HeliLtd	10.3x	16.7%	CN¥14.4b
688425 China Railway Construction Heavy Industry	12.2x	12.8%	CN¥18.9b
301039 CIMC Vehicles (Group)	6.9x	-3.4%	CN¥15.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 301039 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the peer average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 301039's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Machinery Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	26.3%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	26.3%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 301039 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the CN Machinery industry average (26.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 301039's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

301039 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	6.9x
Fair PE Ratio	11.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 301039 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 301039 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥8.29	CN¥12.85 +55.0%	9.7%	CN¥15.00	CN¥12.00	n/a	4
Aug ’25	CN¥8.97	CN¥12.85 +43.3%	9.7%	CN¥15.00	CN¥12.00	n/a	4
Jul ’25	CN¥8.74	CN¥13.13 +50.3%	10.1%	CN¥15.00	CN¥12.02	n/a	3
Jun ’25	CN¥9.32	CN¥13.51 +45.0%	11.0%	CN¥15.00	CN¥12.02	n/a	2
May ’25	CN¥9.77	CN¥13.51 +38.3%	11.0%	CN¥15.00	CN¥12.02	n/a	2
Apr ’25	CN¥9.93	CN¥13.51 +36.1%	11.0%	CN¥15.00	CN¥12.02	n/a	2
Mar ’25	CN¥9.54	CN¥13.51 +41.6%	11.0%	CN¥15.00	CN¥12.02	n/a	2
Feb ’25	CN¥8.55	CN¥13.51 +58.0%	11.0%	CN¥15.00	CN¥12.02	n/a	2
Jan ’25	CN¥9.38	CN¥16.80 +79.1%	19.1%	CN¥20.00	CN¥13.59	n/a	2
Dec ’24	CN¥10.71	CN¥16.80 +56.8%	19.1%	CN¥20.00	CN¥13.59	n/a	2
Nov ’24	CN¥10.06	CN¥16.76 +66.6%	15.6%	CN¥20.00	CN¥13.59	n/a	3
Oct ’24	CN¥12.10	CN¥18.18 +50.2%	7.5%	CN¥20.00	CN¥16.70	n/a	3
Sep ’24	CN¥12.28	CN¥18.92 +54.1%	5.7%	CN¥20.00	CN¥17.84	n/a	2
Aug ’24	CN¥14.40	CN¥18.92 +31.4%	5.7%	CN¥20.00	CN¥17.84	CN¥8.97	2
Jul ’24	CN¥13.23	CN¥17.00 +28.5%	11.8%	CN¥19.00	CN¥15.00	CN¥8.74	2
Jun ’24	CN¥11.97	CN¥17.00 +42.0%	11.8%	CN¥19.00	CN¥15.00	CN¥9.32	2
May ’24	CN¥13.24	CN¥16.50 +24.6%	15.2%	CN¥19.00	CN¥14.00	CN¥9.77	2
Apr ’24	CN¥10.56	CN¥15.00 +42.0%	6.7%	CN¥16.00	CN¥14.00	CN¥9.93	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.