Changchai Company Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 200570 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

200570 (HK$1.93) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (HK$0.29)

Is 200570 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 200570 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 200570 (HK$1.93) is trading above our estimate of fair value (HK$0.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 200570 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 200570?

Key metric: As 200570 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 200570. This is calculated by dividing 200570's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 200570's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	1.7x
Sales	CN¥2.30b
Market Cap	CN¥3.28b

200570 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18.4x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 200570's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 200570 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1.4x
603726 Zhejiang Langdi Group	1.8x	n/a	CN¥3.3b
601956 Hubei Donper Electromechanical Group	0.5x	n/a	CN¥3.3b
301137 HIT Welding IndustryLtd	2.2x	n/a	CN¥3.3b
002722 Wuchan Zhongda GeronLtd	1.2x	9.8%	CN¥3.2b
200570 Changchai Company	1.7x	n/a	HK$3.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 200570 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the peer average (1.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 200570's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Machinery Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
000039 China International Marine Containers (Group)	0.3x	5.0%	US$4.76b
000951 Sinotruk Jinan TruckLtd	0.4x	14.6%	US$2.65b
600686 Xiamen King Long Motor Group	0.4x	n/a	US$1.19b
000404 Changhong Huayi Compressor	0.4x	4.8%	US$687.25m

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 200570 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.7x) compared to the CN Machinery industry average (3.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 200570's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

200570 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	1.7x
Fair PS Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 200570's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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