Stock Analysis

Are Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002372) Investors Paying Above The Intrinsic Value?

SZSE:002372
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Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials fair value estimate is CN¥11.01
  • Current share price of CN¥13.89 suggests Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials is potentially 26% overvalued
  • The CN¥20.78 analyst price target for 002372 is 89% more than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002372) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials

Is Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions) CN¥1.30b CN¥1.18b CN¥1.11b CN¥1.08b CN¥1.06b CN¥1.06b CN¥1.07b CN¥1.09b CN¥1.11b CN¥1.13b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -5.55% Est @ -3.03% Est @ -1.27% Est @ -0.03% Est @ 0.83% Est @ 1.44% Est @ 1.86% Est @ 2.16%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.2% CN¥1.2k CN¥1.0k CN¥876 CN¥785 CN¥716 CN¥661 CN¥616 CN¥577 CN¥543 CN¥513

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥7.5b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥1.1b× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.2%– 2.9%) = CN¥22b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥22b÷ ( 1 + 8.2%)10= CN¥9.8b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥17b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥13.9, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
SZSE:002372 Discounted Cash Flow August 12th 2024

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.078. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Building industry.
  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the Chinese market.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials, there are three pertinent items you should further research:

  1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials that you should be aware of.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 002372's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.