Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 688017 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

688017 (CN¥117.4) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (CN¥4.33)

Is 688017 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 688017 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 688017 (CN¥117.4) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CN¥4.33)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 688017 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 688017?

Key metric: As 688017 barely has revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for 688017. This is calculated by dividing 688017's market cap by their current book value.
What is 688017's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio	9.8x
Book	CN¥2.03b
Market Cap	CN¥19.71b

688017 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	51.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	205.1x
PEG Ratio	6.4x

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does 688017's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for 688017 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PB	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	5.3x
000519 North Industries Group Red Arrow	2x	17.8%	CN¥20.5b
601106 China First Heavy Industries	2.3x	n/a	CN¥20.4b
600835 Shanghai Mechanical & Electrical IndustryLtd	1.4x	14.7%	CN¥16.5b
000410 Shenyang Machine Tool	15.7x	n/a	CN¥14.5b
688017 Leader Harmonious Drive Systems	9.8x	43.7%	CN¥19.8b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: 688017 is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (9.8x) compared to the peer average (5.3x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does 688017's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the CN Machinery Industry?

1 Company	Price / Book	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
000976 Guangdong Huatie Tongda High-speed Railway Equipment	0.2x	n/a	US$91.99m

No more companies available in this PB range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: 688017 is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (9.8x) compared to the CN Machinery industry average (2.4x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 688017's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

688017 PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio	9.8x
Fair PB Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 688017's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 688017 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CN¥117.40	CN¥73.86 -37.1%	36.4%	CN¥111.20	CN¥30.00	n/a	11
Dec ’25	CN¥124.30	CN¥72.11 -42.0%	34.6%	CN¥109.79	CN¥30.00	n/a	11
Nov ’25	CN¥88.50	CN¥67.40 -23.8%	38.9%	CN¥111.47	CN¥30.00	n/a	11
Oct ’25	CN¥95.13	CN¥58.82 -38.2%	36.0%	CN¥111.47	CN¥30.00	n/a	11
Sep ’25	CN¥64.84	CN¥69.90 +7.8%	35.0%	CN¥111.47	CN¥40.50	n/a	11
Aug ’25	CN¥79.80	CN¥82.76 +3.7%	39.3%	CN¥145.00	CN¥44.00	n/a	11
Jul ’25	CN¥80.54	CN¥89.99 +11.7%	32.2%	CN¥145.00	CN¥47.00	n/a	11
Jun ’25	CN¥115.08	CN¥90.90 -21.0%	31.6%	CN¥145.00	CN¥47.00	n/a	11
May ’25	CN¥118.89	CN¥92.16 -22.5%	35.1%	CN¥145.00	CN¥47.00	n/a	11
Apr ’25	CN¥121.72	CN¥98.98 -18.7%	38.5%	CN¥163.00	CN¥47.00	n/a	11
Mar ’25	CN¥129.88	CN¥96.07 -26.0%	41.8%	CN¥163.00	CN¥47.00	n/a	11
Feb ’25	CN¥110.11	CN¥98.78 -10.3%	41.8%	CN¥163.00	CN¥47.00	n/a	11
Jan ’25	CN¥153.50	CN¥93.43 -39.1%	42.5%	CN¥163.00	CN¥47.00	n/a	10
Dec ’24	CN¥158.01	CN¥88.23 -44.2%	37.6%	CN¥133.00	CN¥47.00	CN¥124.30	10
Nov ’24	CN¥123.00	CN¥88.43 -28.1%	37.4%	CN¥133.00	CN¥44.00	CN¥88.50	10
Oct ’24	CN¥118.08	CN¥92.78 -21.4%	32.1%	CN¥133.00	CN¥44.00	CN¥95.13	10
Sep ’24	CN¥122.71	CN¥94.02 -23.4%	31.5%	CN¥133.00	CN¥44.00	CN¥64.84	10
Aug ’24	CN¥122.46	CN¥98.12 -19.9%	27.8%	CN¥133.00	CN¥51.00	CN¥79.80	11
Jul ’24	CN¥162.40	CN¥94.73 -41.7%	29.6%	CN¥133.00	CN¥51.00	CN¥80.54	10
Jun ’24	CN¥137.92	CN¥94.73 -31.3%	29.6%	CN¥133.00	CN¥51.00	CN¥115.08	10
May ’24	CN¥111.88	CN¥105.37 -5.8%	27.3%	CN¥137.40	CN¥51.00	CN¥118.89	10
Apr ’24	CN¥108.39	CN¥104.26 -3.8%	27.0%	CN¥134.30	CN¥51.00	CN¥121.72	10
Mar ’24	CN¥133.00	CN¥103.36 -22.3%	28.8%	CN¥134.30	CN¥48.00	CN¥129.88	10
Feb ’24	CN¥129.00	CN¥101.02 -21.7%	30.8%	CN¥146.70	CN¥48.00	CN¥110.11	10
Jan ’24	CN¥96.78	CN¥101.65 +5.0%	29.6%	CN¥146.70	CN¥51.00	CN¥153.50	10
Dec ’23	CN¥101.71	CN¥103.25 +1.5%	28.9%	CN¥146.70	CN¥51.00	CN¥158.01	10

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/12/25 17:19
End of Day Share Price	2024/12/25 00:00
Earnings	2024/09/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co., Ltd. is covered by 18 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Yikai Liu	BofA Global Research
Fiona Liang	BofA Global Research
Pei Lu	China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd.