A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Winstech Precision Holding Co., LTD. (SZSE:001319)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Winstech Precision Holding fair value estimate is CN¥15.02
• Current share price of CN¥16.52 suggests Winstech Precision Holding is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Winstech Precision Holding's peers seem to be trading at a higher premium to fair value based onthe industry average of -2,649%

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Winstech Precision Holding Co., LTD. (SZSE:001319) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Winstech Precision Holding

Crunching The Numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥74.7m	CN¥89.8m	CN¥103.2m	CN¥114.8m	CN¥124.9m	CN¥133.6m	CN¥141.3m	CN¥148.2m	CN¥154.6m	CN¥160.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 27.51%	Est @ 20.11%	Est @ 14.93%	Est @ 11.31%	Est @ 8.77%	Est @ 6.99%	Est @ 5.75%	Est @ 4.88%	Est @ 4.27%	Est @ 3.84%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.4%	CN¥69.0	CN¥76.4	CN¥81.1	CN¥83.3	CN¥83.6	CN¥82.5	CN¥80.6	CN¥78.0	CN¥75.0	CN¥71.9

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥781m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥161m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (8.4%– 2.9%) = CN¥3.0b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥3.0b÷ ( 1 + 8.4%)¹⁰= CN¥1.3b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥2.1b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥16.5, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Winstech Precision Holding as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.107. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Winstech Precision Holding, we've put together three essential elements you should further examine:

1. Risks: Be aware that Winstech Precision Holding is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...
2. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.