Estimating The Fair Value Of Haima Automobile Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000572)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Haima AutomobileLtd fair value estimate is CN¥4.68
• Current share price of CN¥4.39 suggests Haima AutomobileLtd is potentially trading close to its fair value
• Peers of Haima AutomobileLtd are currently trading on average at a 480% premium

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Haima Automobile Co.,Ltd (SZSE:000572) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Haima AutomobileLtd

Is Haima AutomobileLtd Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥553.7m	CN¥599.8m	CN¥639.8m	CN¥675.2m	CN¥707.1m	CN¥736.5m	CN¥764.3m	CN¥791.0m	CN¥817.1m	CN¥842.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Est @ 10.66%	Est @ 8.32%	Est @ 6.68%	Est @ 5.53%	Est @ 4.73%	Est @ 4.16%	Est @ 3.77%	Est @ 3.49%	Est @ 3.30%	Est @ 3.17%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 11%	CN¥498	CN¥486	CN¥467	CN¥443	CN¥418	CN¥392	CN¥366	CN¥341	CN¥317	CN¥294

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥4.0b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 11%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥843m× (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (11%– 2.9%) = CN¥11b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥11b÷ ( 1 + 11%)¹⁰= CN¥3.7b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥7.7b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CN¥4.4, the company appears about fair value at a 6.1% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Haima AutomobileLtd as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.656. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Haima AutomobileLtd, there are three fundamental elements you should further research:

1. Risks: To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Haima AutomobileLtd .
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
3. Other Environmentally-Friendly Companies: Concerned about the environment and think consumers will buy eco-friendly products more and more? Browse through our interactive list of companies that are thinking about a greener future to discover some stocks you may not have thought of!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SZSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.