Stock Analysis

Earnings grew faster than the 2.1% CAGR delivered to Empresas Copec (SNSE:COPEC) shareholders over the last five years

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SNSE:COPEC

Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. A talented investor can beat the market with a diversified portfolio, but even then, some stocks will under-perform. While the Empresas Copec S.A. (SNSE:COPEC) share price is down 11% over half a decade, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was 11%. And that total return actually beats the market decline of 59%.

After losing 3.2% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

Check out our latest analysis for Empresas Copec

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

While the share price declined over five years, Empresas Copec actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 15% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

It's strange to see such muted share price performance despite sustained growth. Perhaps a clue lies in other metrics.

Revenue is actually up 8.3% over the time period. A more detailed examination of the revenue and earnings may or may not explain why the share price languishes; there could be an opportunity.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

SNSE:COPEC Earnings and Revenue Growth December 20th 2024

Empresas Copec is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. If you are thinking of buying or selling Empresas Copec stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst consensus estimates for future profits.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Empresas Copec, it has a TSR of 11% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Empresas Copec shareholders are down 1.3% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 15%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 2%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Empresas Copec better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Empresas Copec .

We will like Empresas Copec better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chilean exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Empresas Copec might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.