Stock Analysis

Investors in Banco de Crédito e Inversiones (SNSE:BCI) have unfortunately lost 9.3% over the last five years

SNSE:BCI
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It's possible to achieve returns close to the market-weighted average return by buying an index fund. A talented investor can beat the market with a diversified portfolio, but even then, some stocks will under-perform. While the Banco de Crédito e Inversiones (SNSE:BCI) share price is down 25% over half a decade, the total return to shareholders (which includes dividends) was -9.3%. That's better than the market which declined 60% over the same time.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

See our latest analysis for Banco de Crédito e Inversiones

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

While the share price declined over five years, Banco de Crédito e Inversiones actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 12% per year. So it doesn't seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

Because of the sharp contrast between the EPS growth rate and the share price growth, we're inclined to look to other metrics to understand the changing market sentiment around the stock.

The steady dividend doesn't really explain why the share price is down. While it's not completely obvious why the share price is down, a closer look at the company's history might help explain it.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
SNSE:BCI Earnings and Revenue Growth December 18th 2023

It is of course excellent to see how Banco de Crédito e Inversiones has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. This free interactive report on Banco de Crédito e Inversiones' balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Banco de Crédito e Inversiones' TSR for the last 5 years was -9.3%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Banco de Crédito e Inversiones provided a TSR of 19% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 1.8% endured over half a decade. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Banco de Crédito e Inversiones better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Banco de Crédito e Inversiones is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chilean exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Banco de Crédito e Inversiones is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.