BKW (SWX:BKW) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of BKW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BKW (CHF113) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CHF139.47)

BKW fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	2/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	1/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	4/6

BKW Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 19% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 11.57% per year

Risk Analysis

Dividend of 2.3% is not well covered by earnings

Large one-off items impacting financial results

BKW Competitors

Energiedienst Holding

SWX:EDHN

CHF1.4b

Romande Energie Holding

SWX:HREN

CHF1.2b

Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais

BOVESPA:CMIG4

R$32.1b

Federal Hydro-Generating Company - RusHydro

MISX:HYDR

₽349.7b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for BKW
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	CHF113.00
52 Week High	CHF129.60
52 Week Low	CHF96.70
Beta	0.25
1 Month Change	9.28%
3 Month Change	-2.08%
1 Year Change	10.57%
3 Year Change	79.37%
5 Year Change	100.18%
Change since IPO	242.42%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 04

Returns On Capital At BKW (VTX:BKW) Have Stalled

Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...

Apr 28

BKW's (VTX:BKW) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

BKW AG's ( VTX:BKW ) dividend will be increasing to CHF2.60 on 20th of May. This takes the annual payment to 2.3% of...

Shareholder Returns

	BKW	CH Electric Utilities	CH Market
7D	1.1%	0.6%	0.3%
1Y	10.6%	-3.7%	-12.5%

Return vs Industry: BKW exceeded the Swiss Electric Utilities industry which returned -3.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BKW exceeded the Swiss Market which returned -12.5% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BKW's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BKW volatility
BKW Average Weekly Movement	2.9%
Electric Utilities Industry Average Movement	5.2%
Market Average Movement	4.5%
10% most volatile stocks in CH Market	7.9%
10% least volatile stocks in CH Market	2.4%

Stable Share Price: BKW is less volatile than 75% of Swiss stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 3% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BKW's weekly volatility (3%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
n/a	10,750	Roger Baillod	https://www.bkw.ch

BKW AG operates as an international energy and infrastructure company, which plans, builds, and operates infrastructure to produce and supply energy to businesses, households, and the public sector in Switzerland, Germany, Italy, France, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Energy, Grid, and Services. The Energy segment builds, operates, and maintains power plants, such as hydroelectric, nuclear, fossil-fuel, and other renewable energy power plants.

BKW Fundamentals Summary

How do BKW's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BKW fundamental statistics
Market Cap	CHF5.96b
Earnings (TTM)	CHF304.60m
Revenue (TTM)	CHF3.46b

19.6x

P/E Ratio

1.7x

P/S Ratio

Is BKW overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BKW income statement (TTM)
Revenue	CHF3.46b
Cost of Revenue	CHF1.81b
Gross Profit	CHF1.64b
Other Expenses	CHF1.34b
Earnings	CHF304.60m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

Sep 06, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	5.77
Gross Margin	47.52%
Net Profit Margin	8.81%
Debt/Equity Ratio	43.8%

How did BKW perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.3%

Current Dividend Yield

45%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BKW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BKW?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BKW. This is calculated by dividing BKW's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BKW's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CHF5.96b

BKW key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	13.4x
PEG Ratio	1.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BKW's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

BKW PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for BKW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	15.5x
EDHN Energiedienst Holding	11.3x	-6.0%	CHF1.4b
HREN Romande Energie Holding	36.6x	23.0%	CHF1.2b
CMIG4 Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais	5.7x	6.4%	R$32.1b
HYDR Federal Hydro-Generating Company - RusHydro	8.4x	2.8%	₽349.7b
BKW BKW	19.6x	11.6%	CHF6.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BKW is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x) compared to the peer average (15.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BKW's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Electric Utilities Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BKW is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x) compared to the European Electric Utilities industry average (11.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BKW's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BKW PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	19.6x
Fair PE Ratio	18.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BKW is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BKW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BKW (CHF113) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF139.47)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BKW is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is BKW forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

11.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BKW's forecast earnings growth (11.6% per year) is above the savings rate (-0.2%).

Earnings vs Market: BKW's earnings (11.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Swiss market (8.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BKW's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: BKW's revenue (8.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Swiss market (4.3% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BKW's revenue (8.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BKW's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.1%).

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Past Performance

How has BKW performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

1/6

Past Performance Score 1/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

8.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BKW has a large one-off gain of CHF120.5M impacting its December 31 2021 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: BKW's current net profit margins (8.8%) are lower than last year (12%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BKW's earnings have grown by 8% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BKW's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: BKW had negative earnings growth (-15.8%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Electric Utilities industry average (5.8%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: BKW's Return on Equity (7.7%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is BKW's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BKW's short term assets (CHF4.4B) exceed its short term liabilities (CHF4.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: BKW's short term assets (CHF4.4B) exceed its long term liabilities (CHF3.7B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BKW's net debt to equity ratio (19.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: BKW's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 52.6% to 43.8% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: BKW's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (0.8%).

Interest Coverage: BKW's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (4.6x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is BKW current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

2.30%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: BKW's dividend (2.3%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Swiss market (1.81%).

High Dividend: BKW's dividend (2.3%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Swiss market (3.9%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: BKW's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: BKW's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (45%), BKW's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: BKW is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.1yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Roger Baillod (64 yo)

0.58

Tenure

CHF303,000

Compensation

Mr. Roger Baillod serves as Chief Executive Officer at BKW AG since 2022. He is President of a pension fund commission and a Trustees of the Joh. Jacob Rieter-Stiftung.Mr. Baillod served as the Chief Fina...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BKW's management team is considered experienced (4.1 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: BKW's board of directors are considered experienced (4.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/13 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/12 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31