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Deutsche Post Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of DPW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

DPW (CHF63.24) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CHF143.57)

Is DPW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Future Cash Flow Value
Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of DPW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: DPW (CHF63.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF143.57)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: DPW is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DPW?

Key metric: As DPW is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DPW. This is calculated by dividing DPW's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DPW's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	14x
Earnings	€3.27b
Market Cap	€45.80b

DPW key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.3x
PEG Ratio	1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DPW's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DPW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	26x
KNIN Kuehne + Nagel International	25.2x	7.64%	CHF 21.9b
FDX FedEx	19.1x	10.54%	US$85.0b
DSV DSV	44.6x	23.61%	DKK 374.4b
UPS United Parcel Service	14.9x	7.89%	US$83.6b
DPW Deutsche Post	14x	9.18%	CHF 45.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DPW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the peer average (22.1x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DPW's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DPW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (15.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DPW's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DPW PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	14x
Fair PE Ratio	24.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DPW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DPW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Mar ’27	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Feb ’27	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Jan ’27	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Dec ’26	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Nov ’26	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Oct ’26	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Sep ’26	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Aug ’26	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Jul ’26	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Jun ’26	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
May ’26	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Apr ’26	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Mar ’26	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Feb ’26	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Jan ’26	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Dec ’25	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Nov ’25	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Oct ’25	n/a	CHF 41.24 0%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Sep ’25	CHF 63.24	CHF 41.24 -34.79%	9.97%	CHF 47.92	CHF 33.83	n/a	15
Aug ’25	CHF 63.24	CHF 42.31 -33.09%	7.34%	CHF 48.08	CHF 37.71	n/a	15
Jul ’25	CHF 63.24	CHF 43.05 -31.92%	7.81%	CHF 49.66	CHF 38.20	n/a	15
Jun ’25	CHF 63.24	CHF 44.52 -29.60%	7.81%	CHF 51.35	CHF 39.50	n/a	15
May ’25	CHF 63.24	CHF 45.44 -28.15%	9.19%	CHF 53.97	CHF 39.25	n/a	14
Apr ’25	CHF 63.24	CHF 44.59 -29.49%	10.76%	CHF 53.51	CHF 36.38	n/a	14

AnalystPriceTarget

Community Contributor

CHF 70.56

Fair Value

10.4% undervalued

Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2024/09/03 17:30
End of Day Share Price	2024/09/03 00:00
Earnings	2024/06/30
Annual Earnings	2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Deutsche Post AG is covered by 38 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Arancha Piñeiro	Banco de Sabadell. S.A.
Susanna Invernizzi	Barclays
Marco Limite	Barclays