Ignoring the stock price of a company, what are the underlying trends that tell us a business is past the growth phase? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. So after we looked into BVZ Holding (VTX:BVZN), the trends above didn't look too great.
What is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for BVZ Holding:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.021 = CHF7.7m ÷ (CHF408m - CHF40m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2020).
So, BVZ Holding has an ROCE of 2.1%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Transportation industry average of 6.9%.
See our latest analysis for BVZ Holding
Historical performance is a great place to start when researching a stock so above you can see the gauge for BVZ Holding's ROCE against it's prior returns. If you want to delve into the historical earnings, revenue and cash flow of BVZ Holding, check out these free graphs here.
What Can We Tell From BVZ Holding's ROCE Trend?
In terms of BVZ Holding's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. About five years ago, returns on capital were 3.5%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on BVZ Holding becoming one if things continue as they have.
The Bottom Line
All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. Yet despite these concerning fundamentals, the stock has performed strongly with a 44% return over the last five years, so investors appear very optimistic. In any case, the current underlying trends don't bode well for long term performance so unless they reverse, we'd start looking elsewhere.
If you'd like to know about the risks facing BVZ Holding, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should be aware of.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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About SWX:BVZN
BVZ Holding
Through its subsidiaries, provides railway-related services in Switzerland.
Slightly overvalued with questionable track record.