Moderna, Inc.

SWX:MRNA Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 21.9b

Moderna Valuation

Is MRNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MRNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: MRNA (CHF55.3) is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value (CHF3.12)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: MRNA is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MRNA?

Key metric: As MRNA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MRNA. This is calculated by dividing MRNA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MRNA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio12.2x
SalesUS$2.23b
Market CapUS$27.09b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MRNA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MRNA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.1x
IDIA Idorsia
7.2x16.98%CHF 1.6b
BSLN Basilea Pharmaceutica
2.9x-1.71%CHF 678.1m
KURN Kuros Biosciences
7.2x20.98%CHF 846.0m
SDZ Sandoz Group
3.3x5.10%CHF 29.3b
MRNA Moderna
12.2x24.59%CHF 27.1b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MRNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.2x) compared to the peer average (5.1x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MRNA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Biotechs Industry?

62 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MRNA 12.2xIndustry Avg. 8.7xNo. of Companies62PS01224364860+
62 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MRNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.2x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (8.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MRNA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MRNA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio12.2x
Fair PS Ratio3.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MRNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (12.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MRNA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 55.30
CHF 39.03
-29.43%
28.26%CHF 63.88CHF 17.79n/a19
Jul ’27CHF 58.54
CHF 37.02
-36.77%
31.72%CHF 63.78CHF 17.76n/a20
Jun ’27CHF 35.89
CHF 33.98
-5.32%
25.92%CHF 54.28CHF 16.52n/a20
May ’27CHF 36.78
CHF 33.53
-8.84%
26.97%CHF 53.94CHF 16.42n/a19
Apr ’27CHF 39.55
CHF 35.68
-9.78%
53.78%CHF 107.29CHF 9.54n/a20
Mar ’27CHF 39.95
CHF 32.48
-18.70%
58.84%CHF 103.79CHF 9.23n/a20
Feb ’27CHF 34.23
CHF 29.99
-12.38%
63.19%CHF 104.36CHF 13.14n/a20
Jan ’27CHF 24.61
CHF 29.23
+18.78%
68.96%CHF 107.39CHF 13.52n/a20
Dec ’26CHF 19.65
CHF 29.95
+52.41%
69.65%CHF 108.65CHF 13.68n/a19
Nov ’26n/a
CHF 32.43
0%
84.91%CHF 143.23CHF 9.66n/a20
Oct ’26n/a
CHF 35.40
0%
87.03%CHF 158.41CHF 12.00n/a20
Sep ’26n/a
CHF 36.43
0%
86.64%CHF 158.71CHF 12.02n/a20
Aug ’26n/a
CHF 36.77
0%
83.61%CHF 159.41CHF 16.10n/a21
Jul ’26n/a
CHF 37.71
0%
80.06%CHF 156.89CHF 15.85CHF 58.5422
Jun ’26n/a
CHF 39.24
0%
78.06%CHF 162.90CHF 16.45CHF 35.8923
May ’26n/a
CHF 39.75
0%
75.62%CHF 164.26CHF 16.59CHF 36.7823
Apr ’26n/a
CHF 47.27
0%
71.33%CHF 187.52CHF 22.11CHF 39.5523
Mar ’26n/a
CHF 50.56
0%
69.21%CHF 191.40CHF 22.57CHF 39.9522
Feb ’26n/a
CHF 57.25
0%
62.51%CHF 192.78CHF 24.55CHF 34.2322
Jan ’26n/a
CHF 65.51
0%
54.74%CHF 187.19CHF 27.37CHF 24.6122
Dec ’25n/a
CHF 67.47
0%
52.44%CHF 187.19CHF 27.37CHF 19.6522
Nov ’25n/a
CHF 79.88
0%
47.38%CHF 207.20CHF 40.05n/a20
Oct ’25n/a
CHF 85.34
0%
42.80%CHF 201.42CHF 38.93n/a19
Sep ’25n/a
CHF 106.58
0%
45.98%CHF 262.81CHF 49.17n/a21
Aug ’25n/a
CHF 121.70
0%
41.41%CHF 270.82CHF 48.92n/a22
Jul ’25n/a
CHF 130.44
0%
39.17%CHF 277.23CHF 55.45n/a22
CHF 39.09
Fair Value
41.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/07/13 08:55
End of Day Share Price 2026/07/10 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Moderna, Inc. is covered by 42 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
Eliana MerleBarclays
Huidong WangBarclays