Alcoa Corporation

SWX:AA Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 12.2b

Alcoa Valuation

Is AA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of AA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: AA (CHF47.75) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (CHF216.12)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: AA is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AA?

Key metric: As AA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AA. This is calculated by dividing AA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.6x
EarningsUS$1.15b
Market CapUS$15.73b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.3x
EMSN EMS-CHEMIE HOLDING
31.6x4.88%CHF 14.7b
SIKA Sika
21.2x7.06%CHF 25.4b
AMRZ Amrize
30.2x13.02%CHF 27.8b
GIVN Givaudan
26.1x6.04%CHF 28.0b
AA Alcoa
13.6x2.14%CHF 15.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the peer average (27.3x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

20 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AA 13.6xIndustry Avg. 19.9xNo. of Companies20PE01224364860+
20 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (19.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.6x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AA's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
CHF 47.22
0%
20.78%CHF 60.30CHF 29.38n/a12
Feb ’27n/a
CHF 47.22
0%
20.78%CHF 60.29CHF 29.37n/a12
Jan ’27n/a
CHF 36.97
0%
14.65%CHF 45.70CHF 26.00n/a12
Dec ’26n/a
CHF 32.27
0%
8.05%CHF 35.53CHF 26.65n/a12
Nov ’26n/a
CHF 31.88
0%
10.97%CHF 36.21CHF 22.53n/a12
Oct ’26n/a
CHF 28.66
0%
15.21%CHF 35.82CHF 21.49n/a11
Sep ’26n/a
CHF 26.95
0%
14.84%CHF 33.74CHF 21.69n/a11
Aug ’26n/a
CHF 27.03
0%
14.84%CHF 33.84CHF 21.75n/a11
Jul ’26n/a
CHF 29.37
0%
20.70%CHF 41.20CHF 20.60n/a13
Jun ’26n/a
CHF 30.38
0%
23.24%CHF 43.14CHF 20.74n/a13
May ’26n/a
CHF 30.18
0%
23.24%CHF 42.86CHF 20.60n/a13
Apr ’26n/a
CHF 41.51
0%
10.85%CHF 51.27CHF 35.36n/a13
Mar ’26n/a
CHF 42.88
0%
11.13%CHF 51.77CHF 35.70n/a13
Feb ’26n/a
CHF 43.60
0%
11.13%CHF 52.63CHF 36.30n/a13
Jan ’26n/a
CHF 43.59
0%
11.90%CHF 51.79CHF 33.93n/a13
Dec ’25n/a
CHF 41.84
0%
12.13%CHF 51.16CHF 33.96n/a13
Nov ’25n/a
CHF 40.75
0%
10.83%CHF 47.72CHF 33.40n/a13
Oct ’25n/a
CHF 37.63
0%
14.36%CHF 46.54CHF 30.46n/a12
Sep ’25n/a
CHF 37.50
0%
13.71%CHF 46.29CHF 31.14n/a10
Aug ’25n/a
CHF 39.04
0%
15.02%CHF 48.62CHF 30.05n/a10
Jul ’25n/a
CHF 36.63
0%
21.47%CHF 46.74CHF 22.47n/a11
Jun ’25n/a
CHF 35.19
0%
20.79%CHF 47.50CHF 22.84n/a11
May ’25n/a
CHF 33.15
0%
16.49%CHF 44.12CHF 22.98n/a12
Apr ’25n/a
CHF 27.68
0%
20.94%CHF 40.70CHF 19.90n/a12
Mar ’25n/a
CHF 26.89
0%
20.83%CHF 39.79CHF 19.45n/a12
Feb ’25n/a
CHF 26.89
0%
17.78%CHF 38.60CHF 19.73n/a13
CHF 48.86
Fair Value
2.3% undervalued intrinsic discount
12
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/02/20 16:11
End of Day Share Price 2026/02/12 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Alcoa Corporation is covered by 27 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Paretosh MisraBerenberg