Julius Bär Gruppe Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of BAER when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BAER (CHF52.22) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (CHF94.25)

Is BAER undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BAER when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BAER (CHF52.22) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF94.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BAER is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BAER?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BAER. This is calculated by dividing BAER's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BAER's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CHF 10.70b

BAER key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	1.1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BAER's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BAER vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	21.4x
EFGN EFG International	14.2x	5.4%	CHF 4.0b
VZN VZ Holding	24.8x	8.0%	CHF 4.6b
PGHN Partners Group Holding	32.2x	13.6%	CHF 32.3b
VONN Vontobel Holding	14.3x	13.6%	CHF 3.1b
BAER Julius Bär Gruppe	23.6x	22.0%	CHF 10.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BAER is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x) compared to the peer average (21.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BAER's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Capital Markets Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	-14.7%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	-14.7%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BAER is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x) compared to the European Capital Markets industry average (15.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BAER's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BAER PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	23.6x
Fair PE Ratio	20.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BAER is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BAER forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CHF 52.22	CHF 60.81 +16.4%	7.7%	CHF 67.00	CHF 50.80	n/a	14
Jul ’25	CHF 51.04	CHF 61.56 +20.6%	9.2%	CHF 71.00	CHF 50.90	n/a	14
Jun ’25	CHF 54.08	CHF 61.56 +13.8%	9.2%	CHF 71.00	CHF 50.90	n/a	14
May ’25	CHF 49.61	CHF 58.96 +18.9%	7.9%	CHF 68.00	CHF 50.70	n/a	14
Apr ’25	CHF 52.08	CHF 58.26 +11.9%	6.9%	CHF 65.00	CHF 50.70	n/a	14
Mar ’25	CHF 47.87	CHF 57.31 +19.7%	7.6%	CHF 65.00	CHF 50.00	n/a	15
Feb ’25	CHF 47.72	CHF 58.09 +21.7%	6.8%	CHF 65.00	CHF 50.80	n/a	15
Jan ’25	CHF 47.15	CHF 60.29 +27.9%	8.0%	CHF 70.00	CHF 52.30	n/a	15
Dec ’24	CHF 44.55	CHF 61.69 +38.5%	9.7%	CHF 76.00	CHF 52.30	n/a	15
Nov ’24	CHF 53.96	CHF 71.46 +32.4%	4.9%	CHF 78.00	CHF 64.00	n/a	13
Oct ’24	CHF 58.86	CHF 71.46 +21.4%	4.9%	CHF 78.00	CHF 64.00	n/a	13
Sep ’24	CHF 61.28	CHF 71.00 +15.9%	5.3%	CHF 78.00	CHF 64.00	n/a	14
Aug ’24	CHF 61.60	CHF 71.00 +15.3%	5.3%	CHF 78.00	CHF 64.00	n/a	14
Jul ’24	CHF 56.34	CHF 70.86 +25.8%	6.6%	CHF 78.00	CHF 62.00	CHF 51.04	14
Jun ’24	CHF 56.04	CHF 70.86 +26.4%	6.6%	CHF 78.00	CHF 62.00	CHF 54.08	14
May ’24	CHF 63.72	CHF 72.21 +13.3%	6.5%	CHF 81.00	CHF 62.00	CHF 49.61	14
Apr ’24	CHF 62.32	CHF 70.21 +12.7%	4.9%	CHF 75.00	CHF 62.00	CHF 52.08	14
Mar ’24	CHF 62.38	CHF 70.21 +12.6%	4.9%	CHF 75.00	CHF 62.00	CHF 47.87	14
Feb ’24	CHF 59.72	CHF 64.89 +8.7%	5.9%	CHF 73.00	CHF 58.00	CHF 47.72	14
Jan ’24	CHF 53.86	CHF 63.21 +17.4%	7.0%	CHF 69.00	CHF 50.00	CHF 47.15	14
Dec ’23	CHF 55.10	CHF 62.64 +13.7%	6.7%	CHF 68.00	CHF 50.00	CHF 44.55	14
Nov ’23	CHF 48.38	CHF 59.10 +22.2%	14.0%	CHF 69.00	CHF 35.98	CHF 53.96	15
Oct ’23	CHF 43.50	CHF 59.70 +37.2%	12.4%	CHF 69.00	CHF 40.95	CHF 58.86	15
Sep ’23	CHF 46.45	CHF 59.63 +28.4%	12.4%	CHF 69.00	CHF 40.95	CHF 61.28	15
Aug ’23	CHF 49.00	CHF 59.63 +21.7%	12.4%	CHF 69.00	CHF 40.95	CHF 61.60	15
Jul ’23	CHF 43.65	CHF 63.30 +45.0%	5.4%	CHF 69.00	CHF 57.00	CHF 56.34	13

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.