Julius Bär Gruppe AG

SWX:BAER Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 11.9b

Julius Bär Gruppe Valuation

Is BAER undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BAER when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BAER (CHF58.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF98.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BAER is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BAER?

Key metric: As BAER is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BAER. This is calculated by dividing BAER's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BAER's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio31.9x
EarningsCHF 374.20m
Market CapCHF 11.92b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BAER's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BAER vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.9x
PGHN Partners Group Holding
34.6x14.5%CHF 33.2b
VZN VZ Holding
27.7x6.3%CHF 5.6b
VONN Vontobel Holding
16.2x17.7%CHF 3.5b
EFGN EFG International
12.9x6.4%CHF 3.9b
BAER Julius Bär Gruppe
31.9x22.4%CHF 11.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BAER is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.9x) compared to the peer average (22.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BAER's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Capital Markets Industry?

16 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BAER 31.9xIndustry Avg. 13.1xNo. of Companies38PE01224364860+
16 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BAER is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.9x) compared to the European Capital Markets industry average (13.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BAER's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BAER PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio31.9x
Fair PE Ratio28x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BAER is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BAER forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 58.20
CHF 61.18
+5.1%
7.9%CHF 67.50CHF 51.30n/a15
Dec ’25CHF 58.30
CHF 59.94
+2.8%
8.3%CHF 66.00CHF 48.20n/a14
Nov ’25CHF 54.30
CHF 57.66
+6.2%
7.6%CHF 66.00CHF 48.20n/a14
Oct ’25CHF 50.86
CHF 57.66
+13.4%
7.6%CHF 66.00CHF 48.20n/a14
Sep ’25CHF 49.51
CHF 58.01
+17.2%
8.4%CHF 67.00CHF 48.20n/a14
Aug ’25CHF 48.05
CHF 58.49
+21.7%
7.9%CHF 67.00CHF 50.80n/a14
Jul ’25CHF 51.04
CHF 61.56
+20.6%
9.2%CHF 71.00CHF 50.90n/a14
Jun ’25CHF 54.08
CHF 61.56
+13.8%
9.2%CHF 71.00CHF 50.90n/a14
May ’25CHF 49.61
CHF 58.96
+18.9%
7.9%CHF 68.00CHF 50.70n/a14
Apr ’25CHF 52.08
CHF 58.26
+11.9%
6.9%CHF 65.00CHF 50.70n/a14
Mar ’25CHF 47.87
CHF 57.31
+19.7%
7.6%CHF 65.00CHF 50.00n/a15
Feb ’25CHF 47.72
CHF 58.09
+21.7%
6.8%CHF 65.00CHF 50.80n/a15
Jan ’25CHF 47.15
CHF 60.29
+27.9%
8.0%CHF 70.00CHF 52.30n/a15
Dec ’24CHF 44.55
CHF 61.69
+38.5%
9.7%CHF 76.00CHF 52.30CHF 58.3015
Nov ’24CHF 53.96
CHF 71.46
+32.4%
4.9%CHF 78.00CHF 64.00CHF 54.3013
Oct ’24CHF 58.86
CHF 71.46
+21.4%
4.9%CHF 78.00CHF 64.00CHF 50.8613
Sep ’24CHF 61.28
CHF 71.00
+15.9%
5.3%CHF 78.00CHF 64.00CHF 49.5114
Aug ’24CHF 61.60
CHF 71.00
+15.3%
5.3%CHF 78.00CHF 64.00CHF 48.0514
Jul ’24CHF 56.34
CHF 70.86
+25.8%
6.6%CHF 78.00CHF 62.00CHF 51.0414
Jun ’24CHF 56.04
CHF 70.86
+26.4%
6.6%CHF 78.00CHF 62.00CHF 54.0814
May ’24CHF 63.72
CHF 72.21
+13.3%
6.5%CHF 81.00CHF 62.00CHF 49.6114
Apr ’24CHF 62.32
CHF 70.21
+12.7%
4.9%CHF 75.00CHF 62.00CHF 52.0814
Mar ’24CHF 62.38
CHF 70.21
+12.6%
4.9%CHF 75.00CHF 62.00CHF 47.8714
Feb ’24CHF 59.72
CHF 64.89
+8.7%
5.9%CHF 73.00CHF 58.00CHF 47.7214
Jan ’24CHF 53.86
CHF 63.21
+17.4%
7.0%CHF 69.00CHF 50.00CHF 47.1514
Dec ’23CHF 55.10
CHF 62.64
+13.7%
6.7%CHF 68.00CHF 50.00CHF 44.5514

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/18 22:12
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Julius Bär Gruppe AG is covered by 41 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Dieter HeinAlphaValue
Tomasz GrzelakBaader Helvea Equity Research
Joachim MathaBank am Bellevue