Earnings Beat: Julius Bär Gruppe AG Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Julius Bär Gruppe AG (VTX:BAER) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.8% to CHF58.70 in the week after its latest annual results. Revenues were CHF3.9b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of CHF4.98 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 11%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Julius Bär Gruppe after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Julius Bär Gruppe

Following the latest results, Julius Bär Gruppe's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of CHF4.19b in 2025. This would be a meaningful 8.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 2.5% to CHF4.87 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CHF4.28b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF5.26 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CHF62.00, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Julius Bär Gruppe analyst has a price target of CHF67.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CHF52.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Julius Bär Gruppe is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Julius Bär Gruppe's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that Julius Bär Gruppe's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 8.6% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 0.1% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 5.8% annually. So it looks like Julius Bär Gruppe is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CHF62.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Julius Bär Gruppe analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.