Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

SWX:CMG Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 32.5b

Chipotle Mexican Grill Valuation

Is CMG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of CMG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: CMG (CHF25.56) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (CHF25.74)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: CMG is trading below future cash flow value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CMG?

Key metric: As CMG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CMG. This is calculated by dividing CMG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CMG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.1x
EarningsUS$1.45b
Market CapUS$41.59b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CMG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CMG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.1x
YUM Yum! Brands
23.5x7.56%US$41.4b
CPG Compass Group
27.1x10.63%US$54.7b
QSR Restaurant Brands International
24x13.59%US$33.9b
QSP.UN Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership
17.9xn/aCA$35.1b
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill
28.1x10.97%CHF 41.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x) compared to the peer average (23.1x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CMG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Hospitality Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CMG 28.1xIndustry Avg. 17.5xNo. of Companies17PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CMG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.1x) compared to the European Hospitality industry average (17.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CMG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CMG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.1x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate CMG's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CMG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 25.56
CHF 33.82
+32.31%
11.03%CHF 40.58CHF 27.32n/a33
May ’27CHF 26.72
CHF 34.00
+27.26%
10.76%CHF 40.65CHF 27.36n/a34
Apr ’27CHF 25.75
CHF 35.41
+37.51%
11.55%CHF 42.38CHF 27.98n/a35
Mar ’27CHF 28.68
CHF 34.36
+19.79%
11.68%CHF 41.08CHF 27.13n/a34
Feb ’27CHF 29.91
CHF 34.92
+16.75%
12.53%CHF 42.52CHF 27.06n/a34
Jan ’27n/a
CHF 33.96
0%
13.42%CHF 43.34CHF 26.79n/a33
Dec ’26n/a
CHF 34.76
0%
13.44%CHF 44.28CHF 27.37n/a33
Nov ’26n/a
CHF 35.89
0%
13.88%CHF 44.26CHF 27.36n/a33
Oct ’26n/a
CHF 45.44
0%
11.05%CHF 51.74CHF 35.82n/a33
Sep ’26n/a
CHF 46.80
0%
10.00%CHF 52.44CHF 37.11n/a32
Aug ’26n/a
CHF 47.16
0%
9.40%CHF 52.37CHF 37.06n/a32
Jul ’26n/a
CHF 45.86
0%
10.23%CHF 51.50CHF 36.40n/a32
Jun ’26n/a
CHF 47.53
0%
10.38%CHF 53.48CHF 37.80n/a31
May ’26n/a
CHF 47.97
0%
10.52%CHF 56.30CHF 38.09CHF 26.7231
Apr ’26n/a
CHF 56.88
0%
10.49%CHF 63.64CHF 40.66CHF 25.7532
Mar ’26n/a
CHF 58.63
0%
10.79%CHF 67.71CHF 41.53CHF 28.6832
Feb ’26n/a
CHF 59.95
0%
11.71%CHF 67.81CHF 37.98CHF 29.9132
Jan ’26n/a
CHF 58.82
0%
11.67%CHF 67.07CHF 37.56n/a32
Dec ’25n/a
CHF 57.57
0%
11.19%CHF 63.96CHF 37.31n/a32
Nov ’25n/a
CHF 55.67
0%
11.70%CHF 62.17CHF 36.27n/a30
Oct ’25n/a
CHF 52.42
0%
11.86%CHF 61.73CHF 36.36n/a31
Sep ’25n/a
CHF 54.01
0%
11.79%CHF 63.67CHF 37.51n/a31
Aug ’25n/a
CHF 56.20
0%
11.84%CHF 70.90CHF 38.11n/a31
Jul ’25n/a
CHF 59.19
0%
11.70%CHF 71.87CHF 35.93n/a31
Jun ’25n/a
CHF 58.89
0%
10.44%CHF 65.77CHF 37.45n/a30
May ’25n/a
CHF 58.83
0%
10.47%CHF 66.18CHF 37.68n/a31
CHF 34.76
Fair Value
26.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
33
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/29 09:31
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/29 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is covered by 59 analysts. 34 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John StaszakArgus Research Company
David TarantinoBaird
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays