Stadler Rail Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of SRAIL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SRAIL (CHF25.55) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (CHF15.61)

Is SRAIL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SRAIL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SRAIL (CHF25.55) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CHF15.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SRAIL is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SRAIL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for SRAIL. This is calculated by dividing SRAIL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is SRAIL's n/a Ratio?
n/a	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	CHF 2.55b

SRAIL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.5x
PEG Ratio	0.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SRAIL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SRAIL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	26.2x
BUCN Bucher Industries	10.5x	-5.3%	CHF 3.7b
INRN Interroll Holding	32.9x	9.5%	CHF 2.2b
DAE Dätwyler Holding	43x	22.3%	CHF 2.9b
SUN Sulzer	18.3x	8.0%	CHF 4.2b
SRAIL Stadler Rail	20.6x	23.1%	CHF 2.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SRAIL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x) compared to the peer average (26.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SRAIL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CH Machinery Industry?

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	11.2%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

Fetching data

0 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	n/a	11.2%
	n/a	n/a	n/a

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SRAIL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x) compared to the European Machinery industry average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SRAIL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SRAIL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	20.6x
Fair PE Ratio	28.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SRAIL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SRAIL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	CHF 25.55	CHF 29.70 +16.2%	14.8%	CHF 39.00	CHF 25.00	n/a	8
Jun ’25	CHF 27.55	CHF 30.62 +11.1%	14.2%	CHF 39.00	CHF 25.00	n/a	10
May ’25	CHF 27.30	CHF 30.62 +12.2%	14.2%	CHF 39.00	CHF 25.00	n/a	10
Apr ’25	CHF 28.72	CHF 30.62 +6.6%	14.2%	CHF 39.00	CHF 25.00	n/a	10
Mar ’25	CHF 28.48	CHF 32.67 +14.7%	16.2%	CHF 42.00	CHF 25.00	n/a	10
Feb ’25	CHF 27.56	CHF 32.67 +18.5%	16.2%	CHF 42.00	CHF 25.00	n/a	10
Jan ’25	CHF 30.28	CHF 34.62 +14.3%	14.4%	CHF 42.00	CHF 25.50	n/a	10
Dec ’24	CHF 32.72	CHF 35.32 +7.9%	13.8%	CHF 42.00	CHF 25.50	n/a	10
Nov ’24	CHF 30.62	CHF 35.18 +14.9%	15.5%	CHF 42.00	CHF 25.50	n/a	9
Oct ’24	CHF 35.76	CHF 35.18 -1.6%	15.5%	CHF 42.00	CHF 25.50	n/a	9
Sep ’24	CHF 35.44	CHF 34.61 -2.3%	15.7%	CHF 42.00	CHF 25.50	n/a	9
Aug ’24	CHF 35.06	CHF 33.89 -3.3%	17.9%	CHF 42.00	CHF 22.00	n/a	9
Jul ’24	CHF 34.96	CHF 33.61 -3.9%	18.2%	CHF 42.00	CHF 22.00	n/a	9
Jun ’24	CHF 34.34	CHF 33.61 -2.1%	18.2%	CHF 42.00	CHF 22.00	CHF 27.55	9
May ’24	CHF 37.08	CHF 33.61 -9.4%	18.2%	CHF 42.00	CHF 22.00	CHF 27.30	9
Apr ’24	CHF 35.70	CHF 33.61 -5.9%	18.2%	CHF 42.00	CHF 22.00	CHF 28.72	9
Mar ’24	CHF 37.80	CHF 35.00 -7.4%	20.3%	CHF 43.00	CHF 22.00	CHF 28.48	9
Feb ’24	CHF 34.96	CHF 35.00 +0.1%	20.3%	CHF 43.00	CHF 22.00	CHF 27.56	9
Jan ’24	CHF 32.80	CHF 34.22 +4.3%	21.9%	CHF 43.00	CHF 22.00	CHF 30.28	9
Dec ’23	CHF 32.86	CHF 35.69 +8.6%	23.0%	CHF 49.00	CHF 22.00	CHF 32.72	10
Nov ’23	CHF 29.78	CHF 35.79 +20.2%	23.1%	CHF 49.00	CHF 22.00	CHF 30.62	10
Oct ’23	CHF 27.32	CHF 35.79 +31.0%	23.1%	CHF 49.00	CHF 22.00	CHF 35.76	10
Sep ’23	CHF 30.12	CHF 36.25 +20.4%	21.1%	CHF 49.00	CHF 25.00	CHF 35.44	10
Aug ’23	CHF 30.74	CHF 36.95 +20.2%	22.0%	CHF 49.00	CHF 25.00	CHF 35.06	10
Jul ’23	CHF 31.08	CHF 39.05 +25.6%	19.9%	CHF 50.00	CHF 27.00	CHF 34.96	10
Jun ’23	CHF 35.16	CHF 39.05 +11.1%	19.9%	CHF 50.00	CHF 27.00	CHF 34.34	10

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.