Stadler Rail AG

SWX:SRAIL Stock Report

Market Cap: CHF 1.9b

Stadler Rail Valuation

Is SRAIL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SRAIL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SRAIL (CHF18.96) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CHF36.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SRAIL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SRAIL?

Key metric: As SRAIL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SRAIL. This is calculated by dividing SRAIL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SRAIL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.5x
EarningsCHF 122.69m
Market CapCHF 1.90b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SRAIL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SRAIL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.7x
BUCN Bucher Industries
11.5x-5.9%CHF 3.4b
INRN Interroll Holding
25.4x6.5%CHF 1.7b
DAE Dätwyler Holding
31.4x25.3%CHF 2.3b
KARN Kardex Holding
30.3x6.9%CHF 2.0b
SRAIL Stadler Rail
15.5x22.9%CHF 1.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SRAIL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the peer average (24.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SRAIL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Machinery Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SRAIL 15.5xIndustry Avg. 17.7xNo. of Companies29PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SRAIL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the European Machinery industry average (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SRAIL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SRAIL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.5x
Fair PE Ratio26.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SRAIL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SRAIL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF 18.96
CHF 21.54
+13.6%
11.7%CHF 26.00CHF 17.00n/a7
Nov ’25CHF 24.85
CHF 27.64
+11.2%
10.5%CHF 34.10CHF 25.00n/a7
Oct ’25CHF 26.30
CHF 27.64
+5.1%
10.5%CHF 34.10CHF 25.00n/a7
Sep ’25CHF 27.95
CHF 27.64
-1.1%
10.5%CHF 34.10CHF 25.00n/a7
Aug ’25CHF 26.95
CHF 28.16
+4.5%
9.7%CHF 34.10CHF 25.00n/a7
Jul ’25CHF 25.55
CHF 29.70
+16.2%
14.8%CHF 39.00CHF 25.00n/a8
Jun ’25CHF 27.55
CHF 30.62
+11.1%
14.2%CHF 39.00CHF 25.00n/a10
May ’25CHF 27.30
CHF 30.62
+12.2%
14.2%CHF 39.00CHF 25.00n/a10
Apr ’25CHF 28.72
CHF 30.62
+6.6%
14.2%CHF 39.00CHF 25.00n/a10
Mar ’25CHF 28.48
CHF 32.67
+14.7%
16.2%CHF 42.00CHF 25.00n/a10
Feb ’25CHF 27.56
CHF 32.67
+18.5%
16.2%CHF 42.00CHF 25.00n/a10
Jan ’25CHF 30.28
CHF 34.62
+14.3%
14.4%CHF 42.00CHF 25.50n/a10
Dec ’24CHF 32.72
CHF 35.32
+7.9%
13.8%CHF 42.00CHF 25.50n/a10
Nov ’24CHF 30.62
CHF 35.18
+14.9%
15.5%CHF 42.00CHF 25.50CHF 24.859
Oct ’24CHF 35.76
CHF 35.18
-1.6%
15.5%CHF 42.00CHF 25.50CHF 26.309
Sep ’24CHF 35.44
CHF 34.61
-2.3%
15.7%CHF 42.00CHF 25.50CHF 27.959
Aug ’24CHF 35.06
CHF 33.89
-3.3%
17.9%CHF 42.00CHF 22.00CHF 26.959
Jul ’24CHF 34.96
CHF 33.61
-3.9%
18.2%CHF 42.00CHF 22.00CHF 25.559
Jun ’24CHF 34.34
CHF 33.61
-2.1%
18.2%CHF 42.00CHF 22.00CHF 27.559
May ’24CHF 37.08
CHF 33.61
-9.4%
18.2%CHF 42.00CHF 22.00CHF 27.309
Apr ’24CHF 35.70
CHF 33.61
-5.9%
18.2%CHF 42.00CHF 22.00CHF 28.729
Mar ’24CHF 37.80
CHF 35.00
-7.4%
20.3%CHF 43.00CHF 22.00CHF 28.489
Feb ’24CHF 34.96
CHF 35.00
+0.1%
20.3%CHF 43.00CHF 22.00CHF 27.569
Jan ’24CHF 32.80
CHF 34.22
+4.3%
21.9%CHF 43.00CHF 22.00CHF 30.289
Dec ’23CHF 32.86
CHF 35.69
+8.6%
23.0%CHF 49.00CHF 22.00CHF 32.7210
Nov ’23CHF 29.78
CHF 35.79
+20.2%
23.1%CHF 49.00CHF 22.00CHF 30.6210

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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