Stadler Rail Valuation

Is SRAIL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SRAIL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SRAIL (CHF28.9) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CHF16.71)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SRAIL is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SRAIL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

SRAIL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA9.7x
PEG Ratio1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SRAIL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SRAIL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average28.3x
BUCN Bucher Industries
11.7x-5.2%CHF4.1b
INRN Interroll Holding
37.4x9.8%CHF2.5b
SUN Sulzer
16x8.3%CHF3.7b
DAE Dätwyler Holding
48x22.3%CHF3.2b
SRAIL Stadler Rail
23.2x23.4%CHF2.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SRAIL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.2x) compared to the peer average (28.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SRAIL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the CH Machinery Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SRAIL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.2x) compared to the European Machinery industry average (16.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SRAIL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SRAIL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.2x
Fair PE Ratio29.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SRAIL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SRAIL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCHF28.90
CHF30.62
+6.0%
14.2%CHF39.00CHF25.00n/a10
Mar ’25CHF28.48
CHF32.67
+14.7%
16.2%CHF42.00CHF25.00n/a10
Feb ’25CHF27.56
CHF32.67
+18.5%
16.2%CHF42.00CHF25.00n/a10
Jan ’25CHF30.28
CHF34.62
+14.3%
14.4%CHF42.00CHF25.50n/a10
Dec ’24CHF32.72
CHF35.32
+7.9%
13.8%CHF42.00CHF25.50n/a10
Nov ’24CHF30.62
CHF35.18
+14.9%
15.5%CHF42.00CHF25.50n/a9
Oct ’24CHF35.76
CHF35.18
-1.6%
15.5%CHF42.00CHF25.50n/a9
Sep ’24CHF35.44
CHF34.61
-2.3%
15.7%CHF42.00CHF25.50n/a9
Aug ’24CHF35.06
CHF33.89
-3.3%
17.9%CHF42.00CHF22.00n/a9
Jul ’24CHF34.96
CHF33.61
-3.9%
18.2%CHF42.00CHF22.00n/a9
Jun ’24CHF34.34
CHF33.61
-2.1%
18.2%CHF42.00CHF22.00n/a9
May ’24CHF37.08
CHF33.61
-9.4%
18.2%CHF42.00CHF22.00n/a9
Apr ’24CHF35.70
CHF33.61
-5.9%
18.2%CHF42.00CHF22.00n/a9
Mar ’24CHF37.80
CHF35.00
-7.4%
20.3%CHF43.00CHF22.00CHF28.489
Feb ’24CHF34.96
CHF35.00
+0.1%
20.3%CHF43.00CHF22.00CHF27.569
Jan ’24CHF32.80
CHF34.22
+4.3%
21.9%CHF43.00CHF22.00CHF30.289
Dec ’23CHF32.86
CHF35.69
+8.6%
23.0%CHF49.00CHF22.00CHF32.7210
Nov ’23CHF29.78
CHF35.79
+20.2%
23.1%CHF49.00CHF22.00CHF30.6210
Oct ’23CHF27.32
CHF35.79
+31.0%
23.1%CHF49.00CHF22.00CHF35.7610
Sep ’23CHF30.12
CHF36.25
+20.4%
21.1%CHF49.00CHF25.00CHF35.4410
Aug ’23CHF30.74
CHF36.95
+20.2%
22.0%CHF49.00CHF25.00CHF35.0610
Jul ’23CHF31.08
CHF39.05
+25.6%
19.9%CHF50.00CHF27.00CHF34.9610
Jun ’23CHF35.16
CHF39.05
+11.1%
19.9%CHF50.00CHF27.00CHF34.3410
May ’23CHF35.50
CHF38.33
+8.0%
22.1%CHF50.00CHF27.00CHF37.088
Apr ’23CHF35.50
CHF38.33
+8.0%
22.1%CHF50.00CHF27.00CHF35.708
Mar ’23CHF33.86
CHF44.44
+31.2%
17.7%CHF52.50CHF30.00CHF37.808

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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