Stadler Rail AG Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

As you might know, Stadler Rail AG (VTX:SRAIL) last week released its latest yearly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Stadler Rail missed earnings this time around, with CHF3.6b revenue coming in 5.0% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CHF1.24 also fell short of expectations by 13%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Stadler Rail

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Stadler Rail's nine analysts is for revenues of CHF3.83b in 2024. This would reflect a satisfactory 6.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 16% to CHF1.44. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CHF4.04b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF1.67 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CHF31.42 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Stadler Rail, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF39.00 and the most bearish at CHF25.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Stadler Rail's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 6.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.2% over the past five years. Compare this to the 21 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.9% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Stadler Rail is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Stadler Rail. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CHF31.42, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Stadler Rail going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Stadler Rail that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.