TransAlta Renewables Inc.

TSX:RNW Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$3.3b

TransAlta Renewables Valuation

Is RNW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RNW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RNW (CA$12.34) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$53.78)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RNW is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RNW?

Key metric: As RNW is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for RNW. This is calculated by dividing RNW's market cap by their current earnings.
What is RNW's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio42.2x
EarningsCA$78.00m
Market CapCA$3.29b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does RNW's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for RNW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25.4x
BLX Boralex
34.4x18.7%CA$3.0b
PIF Polaris Renewable Energy
26.4x36.6%CA$274.0m
WEB Westbridge Renewable Energy
2.5x20.6%CA$84.0m
TA TransAlta
38.1x-31.6%CA$6.1b
RNW TransAlta Renewables
42.2x46.4%CA$3.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RNW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.2x) compared to the peer average (54.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does RNW's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Renewable Energy Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
RNW 42.2xIndustry Avg. 15.0xNo. of Companies4PE01224364860+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RNW is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.2x) compared to the Global Renewable Energy industry average (15.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RNW's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RNW PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio42.2x
Fair PE Ratio54.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RNW is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (54.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RNW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Dec ’25n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Nov ’25n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Oct ’25n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Sep ’25n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Aug ’25n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Jul ’25n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Jun ’25n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
May ’25n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Apr ’25n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Mar ’25n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Feb ’25n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Jan ’25n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Dec ’24n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Nov ’24n/a
CA$13.14
0%
1.6%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a6
Oct ’24CA$12.29
CA$13.09
+6.5%
1.4%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a9
Sep ’24CA$13.19
CA$13.09
-0.8%
1.3%CA$13.50CA$13.00n/a10
Aug ’24CA$13.43
CA$12.89
-4.0%
2.4%CA$13.00CA$12.00n/a9
Jul ’24CA$11.38
CA$13.29
+16.8%
10.0%CA$15.50CA$10.50n/a12
Jun ’24CA$12.40
CA$13.29
+7.2%
10.0%CA$15.50CA$10.50n/a12
May ’24CA$12.72
CA$13.40
+5.4%
10.6%CA$15.50CA$10.50n/a13
Apr ’24CA$12.44
CA$13.37
+7.4%
10.0%CA$15.50CA$11.00n/a13
Mar ’24CA$11.46
CA$13.48
+17.6%
10.0%CA$15.50CA$11.00n/a13
Feb ’24CA$12.15
CA$13.71
+12.9%
10.8%CA$16.50CA$11.00n/a13
Jan ’24CA$11.25
CA$14.38
+27.9%
13.8%CA$17.50CA$11.00n/a13
Dec ’23CA$14.33
CA$16.54
+15.4%
7.0%CA$18.00CA$13.50n/a13

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2023/10/08 15:10
End of Day Share Price 2023/10/06 00:00
Earnings2023/06/30
Annual Earnings2022/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

TransAlta Renewables Inc. is covered by 18 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Nathan HeywoodATB Capital Markets
Dariusz LoznyBofA Global Research
David GalisonCanaccord Genuity