Mullen Group Ltd. (TSE:MTL) Just Released Its Full-Year Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Shareholders might have noticed that Mullen Group Ltd. (TSE:MTL) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.7% to CA$14.87 in the past week. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of CA$2.0b and statutory earnings per share of CA$1.45 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Mullen Group is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mullen Group after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Mullen Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Mullen Group from ten analysts is for revenues of CA$2.08b in 2024. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 4.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 14% to CA$1.34 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CA$2.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$1.39 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at CA$18.55, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Mullen Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CA$22.00 and the most bearish at CA$16.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Mullen Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Mullen Group.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Mullen Group. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Mullen Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Mullen Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Mullen Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.