Cargojet Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Cargojet Inc. (TSE:CJT) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CA$220m revenue coming in 7.6% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CA$0.58 missed the mark badly, arriving some 43% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, Cargojet's 14 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be CA$998.1m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 37% to CA$5.22 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$1.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$6.58 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Cargojet

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 15% to CA$121. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Cargojet at CA$166 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$75.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.2% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.4% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Cargojet's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Cargojet. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Cargojet analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Cargojet (at least 2 which are a bit concerning) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.