United Parcel Service Valuation

Is UPS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UPS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UPS (CA$17.67) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$11.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UPS is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UPS?

Key metric: As UPS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for UPS. This is calculated by dividing UPS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is UPS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	20.3x
Earnings	US$5.67b
Market Cap	US$117.37b

UPS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.5x
PEG Ratio	1.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UPS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UPS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	22.7x
CNR Canadian National Railway	17.9x	3.9%	CA$98.3b
CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City	27.6x	14.1%	CA$100.6b
FDX FedEx	18.3x	10.8%	US$74.6b
TFII TFI International	26.9x	23.2%	CA$17.7b
UPS United Parcel Service	20.3x	13.0%	CA$117.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UPS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the peer average (22.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UPS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UPS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the Global Logistics industry average (17.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UPS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UPS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	20.3x
Fair PE Ratio	24.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UPS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.