Stock Analysis

Is BCE (TSE:BCE) A Risky Investment?

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TSX:BCE
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The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies BCE Inc. (TSE:BCE) makes use of debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

See our latest analysis for BCE

What Is BCE's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2022 BCE had debt of CA$30.3b, up from CA$27.7b in one year. And it doesn't have much cash, so its net debt is about the same.

debt-equity-history-analysis
TSX:BCE Debt to Equity History October 1st 2022

How Healthy Is BCE's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that BCE had liabilities of CA$9.75b due within 12 months and liabilities of CA$34.5b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of CA$596.0m and CA$3.96b worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CA$39.7b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of CA$52.8b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on BCE's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

BCE's debt is 3.4 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 5.1 times over. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. We saw BCE grow its EBIT by 5.2% in the last twelve months. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine BCE's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, BCE produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 55% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

Both BCE's net debt to EBITDA and its level of total liabilities were discouraging. But its not so bad at converting EBIT to free cash flow. Looking at all the angles mentioned above, it does seem to us that BCE is a somewhat risky investment as a result of its debt. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with BCE (including 1 which can't be ignored) .

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether BCE is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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About TSX:BCE

BCE

BCE Inc., a telecommunications and media company, provides wireless, wireline, Internet, and television (TV) services to residential, business, and wholesale customers in Canada.

The Snowflake is a visual investment summary with the score of each axis being calculated by 6 checks in 5 areas.

Analysis AreaScore (0-6)
Valuation2
Future Growth3
Past Performance3
Financial Health2
Dividends3

Read more about these checks in the individual report sections or in our analysis model.

Acceptable track record with moderate growth potential.