Tecsys Inc.'s (TSE:TCS) Stock Going Strong But Fundamentals Look Weak: What Implications Could This Have On The Stock?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
November 17, 2021
TSX:TCS
Source: Shutterstock

Tecsys (TSE:TCS) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 12% over the last three months. However, in this article, we decided to focus on its weak fundamentals, as long-term financial performance of a business is what ultimatley dictates market outcomes. In this article, we decided to focus on Tecsys' ROE.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

See our latest analysis for Tecsys

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Tecsys is:

9.3% = CA$6.2m ÷ CA$66m (Based on the trailing twelve months to July 2021).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every CA$1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn CA$0.09 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Tecsys' Earnings Growth And 9.3% ROE

On the face of it, Tecsys' ROE is not much to talk about. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 12% either. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 6.6% seen by Tecsys was probably the result of it having a lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For example, it is possible that the business has allocated capital poorly or that the company has a very high payout ratio.

That being said, we compared Tecsys' performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 14% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
TSX:TCS Past Earnings Growth November 18th 2021

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is Tecsys fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is Tecsys Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 66% (implying that 34% of the profits are retained), most of Tecsys' profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the company's shrinking earnings. With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent. You can see the 2 risks we have identified for Tecsys by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

In addition, Tecsys has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth.

Summary

On the whole, Tecsys' performance is quite a big let-down. Because the company is not reinvesting much into the business, and given the low ROE, it's not surprising to see the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. Up till now, we've only made a short study of the company's growth data. So it may be worth checking this free detailed graph of Tecsys' past earnings, as well as revenue and cash flows to get a deeper insight into the company's performance.

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