Shopify Inc.

TSX:SHOP Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$174.3b

Shopify Valuation

Is SHOP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SHOP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
CA$130.81
Fair Value
3.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
45
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: SHOP (CA$134.67) is trading above our estimate of fair value (CA$130.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SHOP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SHOP?

Key metric: As SHOP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SHOP. This is calculated by dividing SHOP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SHOP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio62.3x
EarningsUS$2.02b
Market CapUS$125.75b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SHOP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SHOP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average68.8x
CSU Constellation Software
102.1x20.9%CA$103.5b
GIB.A CGI
18.8x7.5%CA$32.8b
TOI Topicus.com
91.1x21.8%CA$13.2b
DSG Descartes Systems Group
63x14.7%CA$12.5b
SHOP Shopify
62.3x9.3%CA$125.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SHOP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (62.3x) compared to the peer average (68.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SHOP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American IT Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SHOP 62.3xIndustry Avg. 31.5xNo. of Companies6PE020406080100+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SHOP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (62.3x) compared to the North American IT industry average (31.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SHOP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SHOP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio62.3x
Fair PE Ratio64.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SHOP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (62.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (64.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SHOP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$134.67
CA$169.06
+25.5%
14.9%CA$242.49CA$110.85n/a45
Apr ’26CA$139.72
CA$192.51
+37.8%
11.3%CA$250.40CA$143.08n/a45
Mar ’26CA$162.04
CA$193.29
+19.3%
11.2%CA$251.00CA$143.43n/a45
Feb ’26CA$169.61
CA$175.22
+3.3%
10.7%CA$208.21CA$133.54n/a45
Jan ’26CA$152.99
CA$170.45
+11.4%
12.6%CA$206.27CA$120.92n/a44
Dec ’25CA$161.84
CA$164.86
+1.9%
13.8%CA$203.97CA$118.16n/a44
Nov ’25CA$110.26
CA$114.70
+4.0%
11.8%CA$145.84CA$90.28n/a44
Oct ’25CA$105.98
CA$108.65
+2.5%
11.4%CA$141.66CA$87.70n/a44
Sep ’25CA$99.81
CA$106.72
+6.9%
9.6%CA$136.23CA$88.55n/a42
Aug ’25CA$80.64
CA$106.27
+31.8%
11.0%CA$138.31CA$87.14n/a42
Jul ’25CA$90.41
CA$104.67
+15.8%
11.3%CA$136.82CA$86.20n/a40
Jun ’25CA$80.66
CA$104.38
+29.4%
11.1%CA$136.26CA$85.84n/a40
May ’25CA$96.85
CA$113.51
+17.2%
12.7%CA$143.46CA$86.07n/a40
Apr ’25CA$106.15
CA$111.37
+4.9%
12.4%CA$134.95CA$85.02CA$139.7239
Mar ’25CA$103.87
CA$111.15
+7.0%
12.9%CA$135.72CA$85.50CA$162.0439
Feb ’25CA$102.70
CA$101.38
-1.3%
14.5%CA$133.99CA$75.03CA$169.6139
Jan ’25CA$103.16
CA$96.38
-6.6%
13.6%CA$132.59CA$70.27CA$152.9939
Dec ’24CA$99.72
CA$92.54
-7.2%
10.5%CA$111.26CA$71.91CA$161.8439
Nov ’24CA$67.66
CA$92.07
+36.1%
11.4%CA$110.90CA$69.31CA$110.2642
Oct ’24CA$74.14
CA$91.52
+23.4%
10.8%CA$107.77CA$70.05CA$105.9840
Sep ’24CA$90.73
CA$91.54
+0.9%
11.1%CA$108.11CA$70.27CA$99.8140
Aug ’24CA$89.62
CA$84.81
-5.4%
14.2%CA$105.48CA$54.06CA$80.6439
Jul ’24CA$85.62
CA$83.68
-2.3%
14.9%CA$106.03CA$54.34CA$90.4140
Jun ’24CA$77.88
CA$82.61
+6.1%
17.6%CA$108.76CA$48.94CA$80.6643
May ’24CA$64.04
CA$65.44
+2.2%
17.8%CA$88.05CA$46.06CA$96.8543
Apr ’24CA$64.80
CA$65.48
+1.1%
17.4%CA$89.27CA$46.69CA$106.1543
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 45 Analysts
CA$169.18
Fair Value
20.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
45
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/04/27 15:49
End of Day Share Price 2025/04/25 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Shopify Inc. is covered by 79 analysts. 47 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harshit GuptaAccountability Research Corporation
Oliver LesterArete Research Services LLP
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP