Is Lightspeed Commerce (TSX:LSPD) Undervalued? A Fresh Look at Its Current Share Price and Growth Outlook

Lightspeed Commerce (TSX:LSPD) has caught the attention of investors with its recent moves in the software sector. Shares have seen mixed results over the past month, raising questions about the company’s performance and future direction.

See our latest analysis for Lightspeed Commerce.

Over the past year, Lightspeed Commerce’s share price has faced persistent pressure, dropping nearly 25% year-to-date and showing a 1-year total shareholder return of -18.6%. While brief rallies and recent software sector excitement have sparked a bit of positive momentum, long-term holders are still well underwater compared to where the stock sat just a few years ago. This suggests that the market remains cautious about its growth story.

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With shares trading at a notable discount to analyst targets, but recent growth pressures lingering, the question is whether Lightspeed Commerce is now an undervalued opportunity or if the market is already factoring in all future upside.

Most Popular Narrative: 20% Undervalued

According to the most closely followed narrative, Lightspeed Commerce's fair value estimate stands notably above the last closing price of CA$17.03. This gap highlights investor debate over whether current market pricing is underestimating the company’s long-term prospects.

Accelerating adoption of digital payments and cloud-based platforms in retail and hospitality, core to Lightspeed's growth strategy, continues to boost subscription and transaction-based revenue, supporting an expanding total addressable market and steady revenue growth. Consistent product innovation, including AI-powered insights and deeper e-commerce integration, drives higher software ARPU, increases upsell opportunities, and reinforces customer retention, positively impacting future revenue and gross margin.

Read the complete narrative.

What is really fueling this bullish war chest? The narrative rests on a bold combination of recurring revenue growth, margin breakthroughs, and aggressive technology bets. One critical assumption could make all the difference. Are you ready to see which projection drives this double-digit upside?

Result: Fair Value of $21.28 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising competition from large incumbents and the challenge of sustaining revenue growth beyond price hikes could quickly change the outlook for Lightspeed.

Find out about the key risks to this Lightspeed Commerce narrative.

Build Your Own Lightspeed Commerce Narrative

If you're not convinced by the current analysis or prefer to shape your own outlook, you can dive into the data and create a narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Lightspeed Commerce research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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