First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust

TSX:FCR.UN Stock Report

Market Cap: CA$3.8b

First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust Valuation

Is FCR.UN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FCR.UN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FCR.UN (CA$17.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (CA$20.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FCR.UN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FCR.UN?

Key metric: As FCR.UN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for FCR.UN. This is calculated by dividing FCR.UN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is FCR.UN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.9x
EarningsCA$346.65m
Market CapCA$3.79b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FCR.UN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for FCR.UN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.7x
CRT.UN CT Real Estate Investment Trust
22.9xn/aCA$3.6b
SRU.UN SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust
27.5xn/aCA$4.4b
CRR.UN Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust
24xn/aCA$2.6b
REI.UN RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust
24.6x28.3%CA$5.7b
FCR.UN First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust
10.9xn/aCA$3.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FCR.UN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the peer average (24.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FCR.UN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the North American Retail REITs Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
FCR.UN 10.9xIndustry Avg. 28.3xNo. of Companies8PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FCR.UN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.9x) compared to the North American Retail REITs industry average (28.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FCR.UN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FCR.UN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.9x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate FCR.UN's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst FCR.UN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentCA$17.80
CA$20.30
+14.0%
4.1%CA$21.50CA$18.75n/a10
Nov ’25CA$17.58
CA$20.30
+15.5%
4.1%CA$21.50CA$18.75n/a10
Oct ’25CA$18.65
CA$18.89
+1.3%
4.1%CA$20.00CA$17.50n/a9
Sep ’25CA$17.35
CA$18.39
+6.0%
3.3%CA$19.00CA$17.50n/a9
Aug ’25CA$16.45
CA$18.28
+11.1%
3.2%CA$19.00CA$17.50n/a9
Jul ’25CA$14.70
CA$17.64
+20.0%
3.1%CA$18.50CA$16.75n/a9
Jun ’25CA$14.37
CA$17.64
+22.7%
3.1%CA$18.50CA$16.75n/a9
May ’25CA$14.89
CA$17.83
+19.8%
3.4%CA$19.00CA$17.00n/a9
Apr ’25CA$15.56
CA$17.97
+15.5%
3.8%CA$19.00CA$17.00n/a9
Mar ’25CA$15.76
CA$18.08
+14.7%
4.2%CA$19.00CA$17.00n/a9
Feb ’25CA$15.90
CA$16.75
+5.3%
2.8%CA$17.50CA$16.00n/a9
Jan ’25CA$15.34
CA$16.53
+7.7%
4.3%CA$17.50CA$15.00n/a9
Dec ’24CA$14.49
CA$16.17
+11.6%
4.6%CA$17.00CA$15.00n/a9
Nov ’24CA$13.36
CA$16.44
+23.0%
7.4%CA$19.00CA$15.00CA$17.588
Oct ’24CA$13.30
CA$17.92
+34.7%
6.3%CA$19.00CA$15.00CA$18.659
Sep ’24CA$14.05
CA$18.03
+28.3%
6.6%CA$19.00CA$15.00CA$17.359
Aug ’24CA$14.63
CA$19.06
+30.3%
5.3%CA$21.00CA$17.50CA$16.458
Jul ’24CA$14.62
CA$19.44
+33.0%
5.4%CA$21.00CA$18.00CA$14.708
Jun ’24CA$14.83
CA$19.11
+28.9%
7.1%CA$21.00CA$16.50CA$14.379
May ’24CA$15.77
CA$19.28
+22.2%
7.9%CA$22.00CA$16.50CA$14.899
Apr ’24CA$15.73
CA$19.28
+22.6%
7.9%CA$22.00CA$16.50CA$15.569
Mar ’24CA$17.57
CA$19.31
+9.9%
8.4%CA$22.00CA$16.50CA$15.768
Feb ’24CA$18.44
CA$18.75
+1.7%
7.1%CA$21.00CA$16.00CA$15.908
Jan ’24CA$16.81
CA$18.94
+12.7%
5.5%CA$21.00CA$17.00CA$15.348
Dec ’23CA$17.20
CA$18.75
+9.0%
4.0%CA$19.50CA$17.00CA$14.498
Nov ’23CA$16.12
CA$18.75
+16.3%
5.0%CA$19.50CA$17.00CA$13.368

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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